RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.11× league · TAB +5.2
+5.2TAB — talent above budget10th/30
-0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
21%dead money %5th/30
0.512win %12th/30
40.8roster fWAR8th/30
-6surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$145Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFDexter Fowler 109GTommy Pham 37GHarrison Bader 20G
LFTommy Pham 86GRandal Grichuk 58GJosé A. Martínez 24G
RFStephen Piscotty 99GRandal Grichuk 55GJosé A. Martínez 17G
SSPaul DeJong 86GAledmys Díaz 68GGreg Garcia 12G
2BKolten Wong 106GGreg Garcia 34GPaul DeJong 20G
3BJedd Gyorko 109GGreg Garcia 41GMatt Carpenter 16G
1BMatt Carpenter 120GJosé A. Martínez 33GLuke Voit 31G
STARTERSCarlos Martinez 3.5WARMichael Wacha 2.7WARAdam Wainwright 2.0WARLuke Weaver 1.4WARLance Lynn 1.0WAR
CYadier Molina 133GCarson Kelly 31GEric Fryer 26G
DHJosé A. Martínez 3GMatt Carpenter 2GMatt Adams 2G
BULLPEN★ Seunghwan Oh 20svMatt Bowman 23hJuan Nicasio 22hTyler Lyons 15hBrett Cecil 14hTrevor Rosenthal 12hJohn Brebbia 5hSam Tuivailala 1h
CYadier Molina 133 · Carson Kelly 31 · Eric Fryer 26
1BMatt Carpenter 120 · José A. Martínez 33 · Luke Voit 31
2BKolten Wong 106 · Greg Garcia 34 · Paul DeJong 20
3BJedd Gyorko 109 · Greg Garcia 41 · Matt Carpenter 16
SSPaul DeJong 86 · Aledmys Díaz 68 · Greg Garcia 12
LFTommy Pham 86 · Randal Grichuk 58 · José A. Martínez 24
CFDexter Fowler 109 · Tommy Pham 37 · Harrison Bader 20
RFStephen Piscotty 99 · Randal Grichuk 55 · José A. Martínez 17
DHJosé A. Martínez 3 · Matt Carpenter 2 · Matt Adams 2
SPCarlos Martinez 3.5 · Michael Wacha 2.7 · Adam Wainwright 2.0 · Luke Weaver 1.4 · Lance Lynn 1.0
BP★ Seunghwan Oh 20 · Matt Bowman 23 · Juan Nicasio 22 · Tyler Lyons 15 · Brett Cecil 14 · Trevor Rosenthal 12 · John Brebbia 5 · Sam Tuivailala 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tommy Pham 29 pre-arb 1285.8 0.4 +19.1
Jedd Gyorko 28 arb 1253.6 6.0 +6.0
Carlos Martinez 25 arb 343.5 3.7 +8.1
Matt Carpenter 31 FA-elig 1452.7 10.0 -0.9
Michael Wacha 25 arb 302.7 2.8 +6.3
Yadier Molina 34 FA-elig 1362.5 14.0 -5.5
Dexter Fowler 31 FA-elig 1182.4 16.5 -8.3
Kolten Wong 26 arb 1082.1 2.5 +4.5
Adam Wainwright 35 FA-elig 262.0 19.5 -12.6
Paul DeJong 23 – 1082.0 0.4 +6.3
Mike Leake↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 271.9 12.7 -6.1
José A. Martínez 28 pre-arb 1061.6 0.5 +4.9
Trevor Rosenthal 27 arb 501.6 6.4 -1.0
Randal Grichuk 25 arb 1221.4 0.6 +4.2
Luke Weaver 23 pre-arb 151.4 0.2 +4.5
Tyler Lyons 29 arb 501.0 0.5 +3.0
Brett Cecil 30 FA-elig 731.0 7.8 -4.2
Greg Garcia 27 arb 1331.0 0.5 +2.9
Lance Lynn 30 FA-elig 331.0 7.5 -4.1
Matt Bowman 26 pre-arb 760.7 0.5 +1.7
Stephen Piscotty 26 pre-arb 1070.7 1.3 +0.9
Aledmys Díaz 26 pre-arb 790.4 2.5 -1.1
Juan Nicasio↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 90.2 0.4 +0.3
Sam Tuivailala 24 arb 370.2 0.5 +0.2
Luke Voit 26 – 620.2 0.3 +0.3
Harrison Bader 23 – 320.1 0.1 +0.3
John Brebbia 27 – 500.1 0.4 -0.1
Ryan Sherriff 27 – 130.1 0.1 +0.1
Chad Huffman 32 – 120.0 0.2 -0.1
Seunghwan Oh 34 pre-arb 620.0 2.8 -2.6
Magneuris Sierra 21 – 22-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Kevin Siegrist↔ PHI 27 arb 39-0.0 1.4 -1.5
Alberto Rosario 30 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jonathan Broxton 33 FA-elig 20-0.1 3.8 -4.0
Matt Adams↔ ATL 28 arb 31-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Sandy Alcantara 21 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jack Flaherty 21 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Miguel Socolovich 30 arb 15-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Josh Lucas 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Mike Mayers 25 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Marco Gonzales↔ SEA 25 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Breyvic Valera 25 – 5-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Zach Duke 34 FA-elig 27-0.2 5.5 -6.3
John Gant 24 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Jhonny Peralta 35 FA-elig 21-0.3 10.0 -11.1
Eric Fryer 31 FA-elig 34-0.3 0.7 -1.8
Carson Kelly 22 pre-arb 34-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Alex D. Mejia 26 – 29-0.4 – –

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Dexter Fowler2.4
Paul DeJong2.0
Brett Cecil1.0
Lance Lynn1.0
Juan Nicasio0.2
Luke Voit0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Brandon Moss1.2
Jaime García1.2
Jeremy Hazelbaker0.6
Seth Maness0.1
Dean Kiekhefer-0.0
Michael McKenry-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$145.4M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Adam Wainwright3511.027$19.5MFREE AGENT
Dexter Fowler317.168$16.5MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina3412.123$14.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Leake297.000$12.7MFREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta3514.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Brett Cecil306.152$7.8MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke3410.054$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton3312.000$3.8MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Matt Carpenter315.012$10.0MFREE AGENT
Lance Lynn305.119$7.5MFREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal274.058$6.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jedd Gyorko283.164$6.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez253.073$3.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wacha253.062$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seunghwan Oh343.000$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolten Wong263.045$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Siegrist273.116$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams284.033$663kARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Nicasio305.084$432kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Aledmys Díaz261.000$2.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Piscotty261.076$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fryer312.108$675kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk252.048$557kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Lyons292.070$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia271.083$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman261.000$547kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Socolovich301.027$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gant240.134$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala240.128$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Martínez281.000$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham291.129$438kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Brebbia270.000$374kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul DeJong230.000$360kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Voit260.000$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Huffman32–$243k
Carson Kelly220.029$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Weaver230.051$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sherriff270.000$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Magneuris Sierra210.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader230.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Rosario300.089$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy Alcantara210.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty210.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Breyvic Valera250.000$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lucas260.121$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mayers250.028$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales250.043$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex D. Mejia26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.