STL⇄TEX

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2019 odds 22% → 23% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew RobinsonOF·27y·L/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#136 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2019 odds 2% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Patrick Wisdom3B·27y·R/R

+$3.9M+$3.9M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.