STL⇄ARI

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$52.8M net +13.6

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$88.0M realized received 3.6 ± 2 expected · 21.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2019 odds 27% → 23% (-4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul Goldschmidt1B·31y·R/R

+$21.0M+$21.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$88.0M 3.6± 2 exp WARrealized 21.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

3.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$52.8M net -13.6

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $48M expected surplus · +$35.2M realized received 6.5 ± 6 expected · 7.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2019 odds 19% → 23% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luke WeaverP·25y·R/R

+$36.6M+$36.6M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$21.6M 5.3± 5 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

Composite #50.0 pedigree (Baseball America #50 (2017)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew Young2B·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#1126 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Carson KellyC·24y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

Composite #50.5 pedigree (Baseball America #55 (2018) / MLB Pipeline #46 (2018)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.