STL⇄LAD

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2018 odds 11% → 11% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Johan Mieses

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $24M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2018 odds 95% → 95% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Breyvic Valera2B/3B·26y·B/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -5.5/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.