RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.17× league · TAB -0.0
-0.0TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+7.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-2.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
26%dead money %9th/30
0.562win %10th/30
36.1roster fWAR14th/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$151Mpayroll $M11th/30

2019: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFHarrison Bader 122GDexter Fowler 58GLane Thomas 19G
LFMarcell Ozuna 129GTyler O'Neill 33GYairo Muñoz 11G
RFDexter Fowler 118GJosé A. Martínez 75GYairo Muñoz 12G
SSPaul DeJong 157GYairo Muñoz 17G
2BKolten Wong 147GTommy Edman 29GEdmundo Sosa 4G
3BMatt Carpenter 107GTommy Edman 55GYairo Muñoz 21G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 159GRangel Ravelo 9GMatt Carpenter 4G
STARTERSJack Flaherty 4.8WARMiles Mikolas 2.3WARAdam Wainwright 2.3WARDakota Hudson 0.6WARDaniel Ponce de Leon 0.5WAR
CYadier Molina 111GMatt Wieters 54GAndrew Knizner 16G
DHJosé A. Martínez 8GMatt Carpenter 2G
BULLPEN★ Carlos Martinez 24svAndrew Miller 28hGiovanny Gallegos 19hJohn Gant 19hJohn Brebbia 13hTyler Webb 8hJordan Hicks 3hDominic Leone 0h
CYadier Molina 111 · Matt Wieters 54 · Andrew Knizner 16
1BPaul Goldschmidt 159 · Rangel Ravelo 9 · Matt Carpenter 4
2BKolten Wong 147 · Tommy Edman 29 · Edmundo Sosa 4
3BMatt Carpenter 107 · Tommy Edman 55 · Yairo Muñoz 21
SSPaul DeJong 157 · Yairo Muñoz 17
LFMarcell Ozuna 129 · Tyler O'Neill 33 · Yairo Muñoz 11
CFHarrison Bader 122 · Dexter Fowler 58 · Lane Thomas 19
RFDexter Fowler 118 · José A. Martínez 75 · Yairo Muñoz 12
DHJosé A. Martínez 8 · Matt Carpenter 2
SPJack Flaherty 4.8 · Miles Mikolas 2.3 · Adam Wainwright 2.3 · Dakota Hudson 0.6 · Daniel Ponce de Leon 0.5
BP★ Carlos Martinez 24 · Andrew Miller 28 · Giovanny Gallegos 19 · John Gant 19 · John Brebbia 13 · Tyler Webb 8 · Jordan Hicks 3 · Dominic Leone 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jack Flaherty 23 pre-arb 384.8 0.6 +15.3
Tommy Edman 24 – 923.6 0.3 +11.4
Paul DeJong 25 pre-arb 1593.4 1.7 +9.4
Kolten Wong 28 FA-elig 1483.3 6.5 +4.2
Paul Goldschmidt 31 FA-elig 1613.0 14.5 -4.6
Miles Mikolas 30 FA-elig 322.3 8.0 -0.4
Adam Wainwright 37 FA-elig 312.3 2.0 +5.4
Marcell Ozuna 28 FA-elig 1302.1 12.2 -5.4
Yadier Molina 36 FA-elig 1131.9 20.0 -13.8
Matt Carpenter 33 FA-elig 1291.7 14.8 -9.3
Giovanny Gallegos 27 pre-arb 661.5 0.5 +4.6
Harrison Bader 25 pre-arb 1281.5 0.6 +4.5
John Brebbia 29 pre-arb 661.3 0.6 +3.7
Carlos Martinez 27 FA-elig 481.2 11.7 -7.8
John Gant 26 arb 640.9 0.6 +2.2
Lane Thomas 23 – 340.7 0.3 +2.0
Dakota Hudson 24 pre-arb 330.6 0.6 +1.5
Dexter Fowler 33 FA-elig 1500.5 16.5 -14.7
Daniel Ponce de Leon 27 – 130.5 0.2 +1.3
Jordan Hicks 22 pre-arb 290.5 0.6 +0.9
Randy Arozarena 24 – 190.2 0.1 +0.6
Ryan Helsley 24 – 240.2 0.3 +0.2
Tyler O'Neill 24 pre-arb 600.1 0.6 -0.1
Tyler Webb 28 pre-arb 650.1 0.5 -0.1
Luke Gregerson 35 FA-elig 60.1 5.0 -4.8
Jedd Gyorko↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 380.1 8.0 -7.7
Chasen Shreve 28 arb 30.1 0.9 -0.7
Edmundo Sosa 23 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.1
Adalberto Mejía↔ ANA 26 arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Génesis Cabrera 22 – 130.0 0.1 -0.1
Rangel Ravelo 27 – 29-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Joe Hudson 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.1 -0.2
José A. Martínez 30 arb 128-0.0 1.1 -1.2
Drew Robinson 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Mike Mayers 27 arb 16-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Junior Fernández 22 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Yairo Muñoz 24 pre-arb 88-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Andrew Knizner 24 – 18-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Michael Wacha 27 FA-elig 29-0.2 6.3 -7.1
Matt Wieters 33 FA-elig 67-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Dominic Leone 27 arb 40-0.3 1.3 -2.3
Alex Reyes 24 arb 4-0.3 0.6 -1.6
Andrew Miller 34 FA-elig 73-0.4 11.0 -12.4

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Tommy Edman3.6
Paul Goldschmidt3.0
Lane Thomas0.7
Randy Arozarena0.2
Ryan Helsley0.2
Adalberto Mejía0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Luke Weaver1.4
Tommy Pham1.0
Tyson Ross0.6
Patrick Wisdom0.3
Bud Norris0.1
Luke Voit0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$150.9M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Yadier Molina3614.123$20.0MFREE AGENT
Dexter Fowler339.168$16.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter337.012$14.8MFREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt317.059$14.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller3410.062$11.0MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson3510.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright3713.027$2.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Wieters339.129$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Marcell Ozuna285.124$12.2MFREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez275.073$11.7MFREE AGENT
Jedd Gyorko305.164$8.0MFREE AGENT
Kolten Wong285.045$6.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha275.062$6.3MFREE AGENT
Dominic Leone273.123$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Martínez303.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Shreve283.167$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Miles Mikolas302.037$8.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul DeJong251.127$1.7MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader251.038$578kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gant262.004$571kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Brebbia291.092$569kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Reyes242.055$565kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Robinson272.000$564kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill240.101$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mayers271.031$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty231.006$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yairo Muñoz240.154$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Hudson240.066$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks221.000$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos270.085$522kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Webb280.085$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Edman240.000$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Helsley240.000$310kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Thomas230.000$257kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Ponce de Leon27–$230k
Andrew Knizner240.000$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rangel Ravelo270.000$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera220.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Fernández220.000$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena240.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa230.008$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Hudson280.027$87kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adalberto Mejía261.052$32kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.