RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jeff Kingston

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.02× league · TAB -8.1
-8.1TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-6.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-8.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
19%dead money %3rd/30
0.469win %20th/30
26.5roster fWAR23rd/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$124Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFDustin Ackley 21GJames Jones 20GBrad Miller 20G
LFSeth Smith 65GFranklin Gutierrez 42GRickie Weeks Jr. 19G
RFNelson Cruz 80GMark Trumbo 76GSeth Smith 55G
SSBrad Miller 89GKetel Marte 51GChris Taylor 28G
2BRobinson Canó 149GBrad Miller 11GWillie Bloomquist 8G
3BKyle Seager 160GWillie Bloomquist 5GShawn O'Malley 3G
1BLogan Morrison 140GJesus Montero 27GMark Trumbo 23G
STARTERSFélix Hernández 2.6WARTaijuan Walker 1.8WARHisashi Iwakuma 1.7WARRoenis Elías 0.6WARJames Paxton 0.4WAR
CMike Zunino 112GJesús Sucre 50GJohn Hicks 14G
DHNelson Cruz 72GMark Trumbo 30GSeth Smith 20G
BULLPEN★ Carson Smith 13svCharlie Furbush 13hDanny Farquhar 8hTom Wilhelmsen 8hJoe Beimel 6hMayckol Guaipe 2hJC Ramírez 2hRob Rasmussen 2h
CMike Zunino 112 · Jesús Sucre 50 · John Hicks 14
1BLogan Morrison 140 · Jesus Montero 27 · Mark Trumbo 23
2BRobinson Canó 149 · Brad Miller 11 · Willie Bloomquist 8
3BKyle Seager 160 · Willie Bloomquist 5 · Shawn O'Malley 3
SSBrad Miller 89 · Ketel Marte 51 · Chris Taylor 28
LFSeth Smith 65 · Franklin Gutierrez 42 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 19
CFDustin Ackley 21 · James Jones 20 · Brad Miller 20
RFNelson Cruz 80 · Mark Trumbo 76 · Seth Smith 55
DHNelson Cruz 72 · Mark Trumbo 30 · Seth Smith 20
SPFélix Hernández 2.6 · Taijuan Walker 1.8 · Hisashi Iwakuma 1.7 · Roenis Elías 0.6 · James Paxton 0.4
BP★ Carson Smith 13 · Charlie Furbush 13 · Danny Farquhar 8 · Tom Wilhelmsen 8 · Joe Beimel 6 · Mayckol Guaipe 2 · JC Ramírez 2 · Rob Rasmussen 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nelson Cruz 34 FA-elig 1525.0 14.2 +1.6
Kyle Seager 27 arb 1613.8 4.5 +7.4
Robinson Canó 32 FA-elig 1562.8 24.0 -15.3
Félix Hernández 29 FA-elig 312.6 24.9 -16.6
Franklin Gutierrez 32 FA-elig 592.3 0.3 +6.9
Carson Smith 25 pre-arb 702.0 0.5 +5.9
Seth Smith 32 FA-elig 1361.8 6.0 -0.2
Ketel Marte 21 – 571.8 0.2 +5.4
Taijuan Walker 22 pre-arb 291.8 0.5 +5.1
Austin Jackson↔ CHC 28 arb 1071.8 6.1 -0.5
Hisashi Iwakuma 34 arb 201.7 7.0 -1.6
Brad Miller 25 pre-arb 1441.3 0.5 +3.6
J.A. Happ↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 211.2 4.4 -0.7
Mark Lowe↔ TOR 32 – 341.0 0.2 +3.0
Mike Zunino 24 pre-arb 1120.7 0.5 +1.8
Tom Wilhelmsen 31 arb 530.7 1.4 +0.8
Roenis Elías 26 pre-arb 220.6 0.3 +1.6
Tony Zych 24 – 130.6 0.1 +1.7
Mark Trumbo↔ ARI 29 arb 960.5 4.7 -3.1
James Paxton 26 pre-arb 130.4 0.5 +0.8
Shawn O'Malley 27 pre-arb 240.4 0.1 +1.2
Mike Montgomery 25 – 160.2 0.2 +0.3
Charlie Furbush 29 arb 330.1 1.3 -0.9
Jesús Sucre 27 pre-arb 520.1 0.5 -0.3
Vidal Nuño↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 320.0 0.3 -0.2
Logan Morrison 27 arb 1460.0 2.7 -2.7
Lucas Luetge 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Rob Rasmussen↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 19-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Stefen Romero 26 pre-arb 13-0.0 0.1 -0.2
David Rollins 25 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Logan Kensing 32 arb 19-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Yoervis Medina↔ CHC 26 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Edgar Olmos 25 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.8
José Ramírez↔ NYY 25 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Justin Ruggiano↔ LAD 33 FA-elig 36-0.2 1.6 -2.2
Steven Baron 24 – 4-0.2 – –
Dominic Leone↔ ARI 23 – 10-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Danny Farquhar 28 arb 43-0.2 0.5 -1.3
JC Ramírez↔ ARI 26 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Tyler Olson 25 – 11-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Jesus Montero 25 pre-arb 38-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Chris Taylor 24 pre-arb 37-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Welington Castillo↔ ARI 28 arb 6-0.5 0.1 -1.6
James Jones 26 pre-arb 28-0.6 0.1 -1.9
Rickie Weeks Jr. 32 FA-elig 37-0.6 2.0 -3.8
Mayckol Guaipe 24 pre-arb 21-0.6 0.1 -2.0
Dustin Ackley↔ NYY 27 arb 85-0.6 2.0 -3.9
John Hicks 25 – 17-0.6 0.1 -2.1
Willie Bloomquist 37 FA-elig 35-0.7 3.0 -5.2
Joe Beimel 38 FA-elig 53-0.8 0.5 -3.0
Fernando Rodney↔ CHC 38 FA-elig 54-0.8 5.6 -8.2

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Nelson Cruz5.0
Franklin Gutierrez2.3
Seth Smith1.8
Ketel Marte1.8
J.A. Happ1.2
Mark Lowe1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Michael Saunders1.9
Brandon Maurer0.6
Endy Chavez0.1
Abraham Almonte0.0
Stephen Pryor-0.0
Chris Young-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$124.4M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Félix Hernández299.060$24.9MFREE AGENT
Robinson Canó329.153$24.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz347.081$14.2MFREE AGENT
Seth Smith326.119$6.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney3811.137$5.6MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ326.047$4.4MFREE AGENT
Willie Bloomquist3713.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.3212.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Beimel3810.018$502kFREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez327.080$286kFREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery256.089$247kFREE AGENT
Mark Lowe327.005$233kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Hisashi Iwakuma343.000$7.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Jackson285.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
Mark Trumbo294.027$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Seager273.085$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Morrison274.069$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Ackley273.087$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Ruggiano334.019$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Wilhelmsen313.091$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Furbush293.121$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing324.086$119kARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo283.009$115kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Brad Miller251.094$528kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Farquhar281.158$527kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino241.111$524kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Paxton261.027$519kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker220.142$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Olmos250.016$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Taylor240.067$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Smith250.028$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sucre270.169$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Rollins250.100$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoervis Medina262.079$372kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías261.000$311kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño271.055$306kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Montero251.167$194kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ketel Marte210.000$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Rasmussen260.096$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mayckol Guaipe240.054$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Jones260.131$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Hicks250.000$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn O'Malley270.028$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Zych240.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stefen Romero260.136$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Olson250.000$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Leone231.000$61kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez251.000$57kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JC Ramírez260.080$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Luetge282.000$8kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Baron24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.