BAL⇄SEA

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$8.0M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $29M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2016 odds 19% → 27% (+8.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark Trumbo1B/DH/OF·30y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

C. J. RiefenhauserP·26y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#611 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jeff Kingston net −$8.0M net -0.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2016 odds 41% → 30% (-11 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve ClevengerC·30y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.25 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.