TBR⇄SEA

TBRTBR Matt Silverman net +$2.4M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2015 odds 10% → 16% (+5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erasmo RamírezP·25y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jeff Kingston net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2015 odds 5% → 3% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MontgomeryP·25y·L/L

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

#36 overall draft pick → 0.28/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.