RRosternomics
JK

Jeff Kingston

General manager for the Mariners (2015–2015).

1 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record76–86
Win %0.469
-1.9GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.8125th/195 execs
6.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)114th/195 execs
-8.8Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)186th/195 execs
19%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)8th/195 execs
$0MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track180th/195 execs
$16MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)28th/195 execs
$-13MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade195th/195 execs
$-2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees193rd/195 execs
-8.1TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total106th/195 execs
-6.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)98th/195 execs
0.48Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)149th/195 execs
-40Roster surplus $M96th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Mariners GM 2015–2015 1 -6.3 -6.25 -8.1 -12.8 -0.2 -19.2 -4.8 +0.0 0.48 0.469 -40
Career total (1985+ data) 1 -6.3 -8.1 -12.8 -0.2 -19.2 -4.8 +0.0 0.48 0.469 -40

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)-0.2
Trade-19.2
Free agency-4.8
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 0% draft · 30% FA · 70% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Jeff Kingston's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 24 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Nelson Cruz DH/OF SEA Trade 2015 4 +16.1 +4.0 2.1
Seth Smith OF SEA Trade 2015 2 +2.7 +1.3 0.9
Nate Karns P SEA Trade 2015 1 +1.4 +1.4 4.1
Nori Aoki OF SEA Free agency 2015 1 +1.3 +1.3 3.7
Austin Jackson OF SEA Trade 2015 1 +1.2 +1.2 0.9
J. A. Happ P SEA Trade 2015 1 +1.2 +1.2 0.6
Tony Zych P SEA Trade 2015 3 +1.1 +0.4
Steve Cishek P SEA Free agency 2015 1 +1.0 +1.0 2.9
Anthony Misiewicz P SEA Draft 2015 2 +0.9 +0.4
Shawn O'Malley SS/OF SEA Free agency 2015 2 +0.5 +0.2 0.2
Mark Trumbo 1B/DH/OF SEA Trade 2015 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.3
Evan Scribner P SEA Trade 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.3
Mike Montgomery P SEA Trade 2015 2 +0.2 +0.1
Vidal Nuño P SEA Trade 2015 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.0
Art Warren P SEA Draft 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1
Jonathan Aro P SEA Trade 2015 -0.0
Adam Lind 1B/DH SEA Trade 2015 -0.1
Andrew Moore P SEA Draft 2015 -0.1
Ljay Newsome P SEA Draft 2015 -0.1
Donn Roach P SEA Free agency 2015 -0.1
Adrian Sampson P SEA Trade 2015 -0.1
Rickie Weeks 2B SEA Free agency 2015 -0.6
Chris Iannetta C SEA Free agency 2015 -0.7
Braden Bishop OF SEA Draft 2015 -0.9

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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