TOR⇄SEA

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2015 odds 89% → 89% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark LoweP·32y·L/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jeff Kingston net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $39M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.2 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2015 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nick WellsP·19y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jake BrentzP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#325 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rob RasmussenP·26y·R/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.