RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.13× league · TAB +2.1
+2.1TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+2.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
21%dead money %6th/30
0.531win %12th/30
37.8roster fWAR11th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$141Mpayroll $M12th/30

Roster

CFLeonys Martin 143GNorichika Aoki 15GShawn O'Malley 5G
LFNorichika Aoki 99GGuillermo Heredia 35GSeth Smith 35G
RFSeth Smith 74GFranklin Gutierrez 64GNelson Cruz 48G
SSKetel Marte 119GShawn O'Malley 36GMike Freeman 2G
2BRobinson Canó 157GShawn O'Malley 12GMike Freeman 5G
3BKyle Seager 156GShawn O'Malley 7GLuis Sardinas 3G
1BAdam Lind 101GDae-Ho Lee 84GDaniel Vogelbach 4G
STARTERSJames Paxton 3.6WARHisashi Iwakuma 2.6WARNate Karns 1.4WARFélix Hernández 1.0WARTaijuan Walker 0.7WAR
CChris Iannetta 93GMike Zunino 52GSteve Clevenger 20G
DHNelson Cruz 107GAdam Lind 16GFranklin Gutierrez 15G
BULLPEN★ Steve Cishek 25svNick Vincent 17hEdwin Díaz 13hVidal Nuño 12hTom Wilhelmsen 12hDrew Storen 10hArquimedes Caminero 8hSteve Johnson 1h
CChris Iannetta 93 · Mike Zunino 52 · Steve Clevenger 20
1BAdam Lind 101 · Dae-Ho Lee 84 · Daniel Vogelbach 4
2BRobinson Canó 157 · Shawn O'Malley 12 · Mike Freeman 5
3BKyle Seager 156 · Shawn O'Malley 7 · Luis Sardinas 3
SSKetel Marte 119 · Shawn O'Malley 36 · Mike Freeman 2
LFNorichika Aoki 99 · Guillermo Heredia 35 · Seth Smith 35
CFLeonys Martin 143 · Norichika Aoki 15 · Shawn O'Malley 5
RFSeth Smith 74 · Franklin Gutierrez 64 · Nelson Cruz 48
DHNelson Cruz 107 · Adam Lind 16 · Franklin Gutierrez 15
SPJames Paxton 3.6 · Hisashi Iwakuma 2.6 · Nate Karns 1.4 · Félix Hernández 1.0 · Taijuan Walker 0.7
BP★ Steve Cishek 25 · Nick Vincent 17 · Edwin Díaz 13 · Vidal Nuño 12 · Tom Wilhelmsen 12 · Drew Storen 10 · Arquimedes Caminero 8 · Steve Johnson 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Robinson Canó 33 FA-elig 1616.4 24.0 -3.3
Kyle Seager 28 arb 1585.9 8.0 +11.3
Nelson Cruz 35 FA-elig 1554.7 14.2 +0.9
James Paxton 27 pre-arb 203.6 0.3 +11.2
Leonys Martin 28 arb 1432.8 4.2 +4.8
Hisashi Iwakuma 35 arb 332.6 11.0 -2.4
Edwin Díaz 22 – 491.9 0.3 +5.9
Mike Zunino 25 pre-arb 551.5 0.2 +4.7
Nate Karns 28 arb 221.4 0.5 +4.1
Norichika Aoki 34 arb 1181.3 5.5 -1.3
Steve Cishek 30 FA-elig 621.0 4.0 -0.7
Félix Hernández 30 FA-elig 251.0 25.9 -22.5
Mike Montgomery↔ CHC 26 pre-arb 321.0 0.3 +2.8
Franklin Gutierrez 33 FA-elig 980.9 1.5 +1.5
Seth Smith 33 FA-elig 1370.8 6.8 -4.0
Wade Miley↔ BAL 29 arb 190.8 3.9 -1.4
Taijuan Walker 23 arb 250.7 0.5 +1.9
Jesús Sucre 28 arb 90.6 0.5 +1.6
Evan Scribner 30 arb 120.4 0.8 +0.6
Nick Vincent 29 arb 600.4 0.5 +0.6
Ketel Marte 22 pre-arb 1190.3 0.5 +0.6
Drew Storen↔ TOR 28 FA-elig 190.3 2.8 -1.8
Dan Altavilla 23 – 150.3 0.1 +0.8
Guillermo Heredia 25 – 450.3 0.5 +0.4
Tony Zych 25 pre-arb 120.2 0.5 +0.2
Mike Freeman↔ ARI 28 – 130.1 0.1 +0.3
Shawn O'Malley 28 pre-arb 890.1 0.4 -0.1
Vidal Nuño 28 arb 550.1 0.5 -0.3
Mayckol Guaipe 25 – 50.1 0.1 +0.1
Joe Wieland 26 arb 10.0 0.6 -0.5
Aríel Miranda↔ BAL 27 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jonathan Aro 25 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Blake Parker↔ NYY 31 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Steve Johnson 28 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Stefen Romero 27 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Daniel Robertson 30 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Dae-Ho Lee 34 pre-arb 104-0.1 1.0 -1.3
Joaquín Benoit↔ TOR 38 FA-elig 26-0.1 4.1 -4.3
Adam Lind 32 FA-elig 126-0.1 8.0 -8.3
Ben Gamel↔ NYY 24 – 27-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Joel Peralta↔ CHC 40 FA-elig 26-0.1 1.0 -1.4
Chris Taylor↔ LAD 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Adrian Sampson 24 – 2-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Arquimedes Caminero↔ PIT 29 arb 18-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Donn Roach 26 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.5
David Rollins 26 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Cody Martin 26 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Steve Clevenger 30 arb 22-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Wade LeBlanc↔ PIT 31 – 11-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Tom Wilhelmsen↔ TEX 32 arb 29-0.2 1.8 -2.4
Pat Venditte↔ TOR 31 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Daniel Vogelbach 23 – 8-0.3 – –
Chris Iannetta 33 FA-elig 94-0.7 4.2 -6.4
Luis Sardinas↔ SDP 23 pre-arb 32-0.7 0.2 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Leonys Martin2.8
Edwin Díaz1.9
Nate Karns1.4
Norichika Aoki1.3
Steve Cishek1.0
Wade Miley0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Carson Smith2.0
Austin Jackson1.8
Brad Miller1.3
J.A. Happ1.2
Mark Lowe1.0
Roenis Elías0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$141.4M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Félix Hernández3010.060$25.9MFREE AGENT
Robinson Canó3310.153$24.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz358.082$14.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Lind329.058$8.0MFREE AGENT
Seth Smith337.119$6.8MFREE AGENT
Chris Iannetta339.013$4.2MFREE AGENT
Joaquín Benoit3815.040$4.1MFREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez338.011$1.5MFREE AGENT
Joel Peralta409.132$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Hisashi Iwakuma354.000$11.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Seager284.085$8.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Norichika Aoki344.000$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonys Martin283.078$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek304.143$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley294.044$3.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen285.140$2.8MFREE AGENT
Tom Wilhelmsen324.091$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Wieland263.027$590kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc313.038$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Dae-Ho Lee340.000$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner302.142$808kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño282.015$533kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker231.142$529kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent292.067$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Karns281.033$524kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger302.123$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ketel Marte220.066$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sucre281.169$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Zych250.034$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Heredia250.000$470kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn O'Malley280.063$391kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Paxton272.027$344kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery260.089$336kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Díaz220.000$336kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Sampson240.000$297kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sardinas230.143$248kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino252.084$227kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arquimedes Caminero291.060$168kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Rollins260.100$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aríel Miranda271.061$153kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Johnson281.046$128kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Martin260.075$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla230.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Freeman280.000$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Gamel240.000$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mayckol Guaipe251.054$61kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Venditte310.121$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson302.000$42kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stefen Romero270.170$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donn Roach260.066$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aro250.040$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Taylor250.139$10kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker311.148$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.