RRosternomics
𝕏

Padres SDP

‹ ›

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB +8.9
+8.9TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+6.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
25%dead money %15th/30
0.537win %13th/30
41.4roster fWAR8th/30
+14surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$58Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFJay Payton 128GTerrence Long 28GFreddy Guzman 17G
LFRyan Klesko 104GTerrence Long 61GKerry Robinson 39G
RFBrian Giles 159GTerrence Long 9GBrian Buchanan 3G
SSKhalil Greene 136GAlex Gonzalez 81GRich Aurilia 79G
2BMark Loretta 154GRamón Vázquez 10GRich Aurilia 7G
3BSean Burroughs 125GRich Aurilia 29GJeff Cirillo 11G
1BPhil Nevin 144GRyan Klesko 18GDave Hansen 14G
STARTERSJake Peavy 4.3WARAdam Eaton 3.1WARDavid Wells 3.0WARBrian Lawrence 1.6WARDennis Tankersley 0.6WAR
CRamon Hernandez 108GMiguel Ojeda 50GHumberto Quintero 21G
DHRyan Klesko 3GPhil Nevin 2GTerrence Long 1G
BULLPEN★ Trevor Hoffman 41svAkinori Otsuka 34hScott Linebrink 28hRod Beck 5hBlaine Neal 3hJay Witasick 2hAntonio Osuna 2hRicky Stone 1h
CRamon Hernandez 108 · Miguel Ojeda 50 · Humberto Quintero 21
1BPhil Nevin 144 · Ryan Klesko 18 · Dave Hansen 14
2BMark Loretta 154 · Ramón Vázquez 10 · Rich Aurilia 7
3BSean Burroughs 125 · Rich Aurilia 29 · Jeff Cirillo 11
SSKhalil Greene 136 · Alex Gonzalez 81 · Rich Aurilia 79
LFRyan Klesko 104 · Terrence Long 61 · Kerry Robinson 39
CFJay Payton 128 · Terrence Long 28 · Freddy Guzman 17
RFBrian Giles 159 · Terrence Long 9 · Brian Buchanan 3
DHRyan Klesko 3 · Phil Nevin 2 · Terrence Long 1
SPJake Peavy 4.3 · Adam Eaton 3.1 · David Wells 3.0 · Brian Lawrence 1.6 · Dennis Tankersley 0.6
BP★ Trevor Hoffman 41 · Akinori Otsuka 34 · Scott Linebrink 28 · Rod Beck 5 · Blaine Neal 3 · Jay Witasick 2 · Antonio Osuna 2 · Ricky Stone 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mark Loretta 32 FA-elig 1545.8 2.5 +7.5
Brian Giles 33 FA-elig 1595.0 8.8 -0.2
Jake Peavy 23 pre-arb 274.3 0.3 +7.1
Khalil Greene 24 pre-arb 1393.2 0.3 +5.1
Adam Eaton 26 arb 383.1 1.9 +3.5
Ramon Hernandez 28 arb 1113.1 2.9 +2.3
David Wells 41 FA-elig 313.0 1.2 +3.9
Phil Nevin 33 FA-elig 1472.5 8.5 -4.3
Sean Burroughs 23 pre-arb 1302.2 0.3 +3.5
Akinori Otsuka 32 pre-arb 731.8 0.7 +2.4
Trevor Hoffman 36 FA-elig 551.8 2.5 +0.6
Jay Payton 31 FA-elig 1431.7 1.5 +1.4
Ryan Klesko 33 FA-elig 1271.7 6.0 -3.1
Brian Lawrence 28 arb 361.6 0.9 +1.8
Scott Linebrink 27 arb 731.3 0.3 +1.9
Miguel Ojeda 29 pre-arb 620.8 0.3 +1.1
Terrence Long 28 arb 1360.8 3.6 -2.2
Antonio Osuna 31 FA-elig 310.6 0.8 +0.3
Dennis Tankersley 25 – 90.6 – –
Brian Sweeney 30 – 70.4 – –
Rich Aurilia↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 510.2 1.3 -0.9
Blaine Neal 26 – 400.1 – –
Andy Ashby 36 – 20.1 – –
Humberto Quintero 24 – 230.1 – –
Freddy Guzman 23 – 200.0 – –
Jon Knott 25 – 90.0 – –
Darren Bragg↔ CIN 34 – 90.0 – –
Robert Fick↔ TBR 30 FA-elig 13-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Jay Witasick 31 FA-elig 44-0.0 1.8 -1.8
Justin Germano 21 – 7-0.0 – –
Alex Gonzalez↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 11-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Xavier Nady 25 – 34-0.1 – –
Mike Bynum 26 – 2-0.1 – –
Ramón Vázquez 27 arb 52-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Marty McLeary 29 – 3-0.1 – –
Steve Watkins 25 – 11-0.2 – –
Brandon Puffer 28 – 14-0.2 – –
Sterling Hitchcock 33 – 4-0.2 – –
Ismael Valdez↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 23-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Kerry Robinson 30 FA-elig 80-0.3 0.5 -0.9
Ricky Stone↔ HOU 29 arb 27-0.3 0.2 -0.7
Jeff Cirillo 34 FA-elig 33-0.3 7.0 -7.5
Eddie Oropesa 32 arb 16-0.3 0.6 -1.2
Dave Hansen↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 29-0.4 0.3 -0.9
Jason Szuminski 25 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Brian Buchanan↔ NYM 30 arb 38-0.6 0.6 -1.6
Rod Beck 35 – 26-0.6 – –

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Ramon Hernandez3.1
David Wells3.0
Akinori Otsuka1.8
Jay Payton1.7
Terrence Long0.8
Antonio Osuna0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Mark Kotsay4.1
Gary Matthews Jr.1.9
Rondell White1.2
Matt Herges0.7
Lou Merloni0.6
Keith Lockhart0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$57.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Brian Giles339.000$8.8M$8.3M$7.7M$9.7M$9.7M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Nevin339.000$8.5M$6.9MFREE AGENT
Jeff Cirillo3410.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Klesko3312.000$6.0M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Hoffman3611.000$2.5M$5.0M$4.5M$7.0M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Loretta329.000$2.5M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick318.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton316.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Rich Aurilia329.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
David Wells4117.000$1.2MFREE AGENT$2.5M$2.3M
Alex Gonzalez3110.000$762kFREE AGENT
Antonio Osuna319.000$750kFREE AGENT
Ismael Valdez3010.000$541kFREE AGENT
Kerry Robinson306.000$450kFREE AGENT
Dave Hansen3514.000$253kFREE AGENT
Robert Fick306.000$117kFREE AGENT
Andy Ashby3613.000—FREE AGENT
Rod Beck3513.000—FREE AGENT
Darren Bragg3410.000—FREE AGENT
Sterling Hitchcock3312.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Terrence Long285.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez285.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Adam Eaton264.000$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Lawrence283.000$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Buchanan304.000$617kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Oropesa323.000$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Vázquez273.000$342kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Linebrink274.000$326kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Stone293.000$248kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Nady254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Neal263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Akinori Otsuka320.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Peavy232.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Burroughs232.000$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Ojeda291.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Khalil Greene241.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Szuminski250.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marty McLeary29–—
Humberto Quintero241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Watkins25–—
Mike Bynum262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Tankersley25–—
Brandon Puffer28–—
Brian Sweeney301.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Germano210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Guzman23–—
Jon Knott25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.