STL⇄SDP

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$4.0M+$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2004 odds 87% → 88% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian HunterOF·33y·R/R

+$4.0M+$2.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$2.4M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2004 odds 51% → 50% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kerry RobinsonOF·30y·L/L

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.33 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.