MIA⇄SDP

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2004 odds 17% → 18% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryan Gaal

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2004 odds 51% → 50% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marty McLearyP·29y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#311 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.