MIA⇄SDP

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$4.8M net +0.1

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2004 odds 17% → 18% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ismael ValdezP·30y·R/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$4.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2004 odds 51% → 50% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Travis ChickP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#413 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.