RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.68× league · TAB -3.2
-3.2TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-12.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
42%dead money %24th/30
0.395win %28th/30
26.2roster fWAR21st/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$47Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFMark Kotsay 126GGary Matthews Jr. 75GShane Victorino 16G
LFBrian Giles 128GGary Matthews Jr. 33GShane Victorino 15G
RFXavier Nady 105GGary Matthews Jr. 35GBrian Buchanan 29G
SSRamón Vázquez 108GDonaldo Mendez 26GLou Merloni 23G
2BMark Loretta 150GKeith Lockhart 27GRamón Vázquez 3G
3BSean Burroughs 137GDave Hansen 11GRamón Vázquez 4G
1BRyan Klesko 111GPhil Nevin 31GBrian Buchanan 24G
STARTERSAdam Eaton 3.2WARBrian Lawrence 2.4WARScott Linebrink 0.7WARJake Peavy 0.6WARKevin Jarvis 0.2WAR
CGary Bennett 91GMiguel Ojeda 48GWiki Gonzalez 23G
DHDave Hansen 3GBrian Buchanan 2GRyan Klesko 1G
BULLPEN★ Rod Beck 20svMike Matthews 16hJay Witasick 12hLuther Hackman 11hBrandon Villafuerte 2hJoe Roa 0hKevin Walker 0hTrevor Hoffman 0h
CGary Bennett 91 · Miguel Ojeda 48 · Wiki Gonzalez 23
1BRyan Klesko 111 · Phil Nevin 31 · Brian Buchanan 24
2BMark Loretta 150 · Keith Lockhart 27 · Ramón Vázquez 3
3BSean Burroughs 137 · Dave Hansen 11 · Ramón Vázquez 4
SSRamón Vázquez 108 · Donaldo Mendez 26 · Lou Merloni 23
LFBrian Giles 128 · Gary Matthews Jr. 33 · Shane Victorino 15
CFMark Kotsay 126 · Gary Matthews Jr. 75 · Shane Victorino 16
RFXavier Nady 105 · Gary Matthews Jr. 35 · Brian Buchanan 29
DHDave Hansen 3 · Brian Buchanan 2 · Ryan Klesko 1
SPAdam Eaton 3.2 · Brian Lawrence 2.4 · Scott Linebrink 0.7 · Jake Peavy 0.6 · Kevin Jarvis 0.2
BP★ Rod Beck 20 · Mike Matthews 16 · Jay Witasick 12 · Luther Hackman 11 · Brandon Villafuerte 2 · Joe Roa 0 · Kevin Walker 0 · Trevor Hoffman 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mark Loretta 31 FA-elig 1544.4 1.2 +6.6
Mark Kotsay 27 FA-elig 1284.1 4.5 +2.8
Adam Eaton 25 arb 393.2 0.3 +5.2
Sean Burroughs 22 pre-arb 1462.7 0.3 +4.5
Brian Lawrence 27 pre-arb 332.4 0.6 +3.6
Gary Matthews Jr.↔ BAL 28 arb 1031.9 0.6 +2.8
Ramón Vázquez 26 pre-arb 1161.6 0.3 +2.5
Ryan Klesko 32 FA-elig 1211.4 5.5 -2.9
Xavier Nady 24 arb 1101.4 0.8 +1.8
Brian Giles↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 291.2 1.9 +0.3
Rondell White↔ KCR 31 FA-elig 1151.2 4.6 -2.5
Matt Herges↔ SFG 33 – 400.7 – –
Scott Linebrink↔ HOU 26 – 430.7 0.2 +1.0
Brian Buchanan 29 arb 1150.6 0.3 +0.8
Jake Peavy 22 pre-arb 320.6 0.3 +0.7
Lou Merloni↔ BOS 32 arb 650.6 0.5 +0.6
Phil Nevin 32 FA-elig 590.5 5.0 -4.1
Keith Lockhart 38 FA-elig 620.4 0.5 +0.2
Rod Beck 34 – 360.4 – –
Miguel Ojeda 28 – 610.4 – –
Mike Matthews 29 arb 770.3 0.3 +0.1
Kevin Jarvis 33 FA-elig 170.2 3.0 -2.6
Dave Hansen 34 FA-elig 1100.2 0.6 -0.1
Jason Bay↔ PIT 24 – 30.2 – –
Charles Nagy 36 – 50.2 – –
Roger Deago 26 – 20.1 – –
Oliver Pérez↔ PIT 21 pre-arb 190.1 0.2 -0.1
Trevor Hoffman 35 FA-elig 90.1 9.6 -9.5
Donaldo Mendez 25 – 260.0 – –
Brian Tollberg 30 – 30.0 – –
Carlton Loewer 29 – 50.0 – –
Todd Sears↔ MIN 27 – 90.0 – –
Dennis Tankersley 24 – 10.0 – –
Joe Roa↔ COL 31 FA-elig 18-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Kevin Walker 26 arb 11-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Jermaine Clark↔ TEX 26 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Humberto Quintero 23 – 12-0.1 – –
Gary Bennett 31 FA-elig 96-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Jesse Orosco↔ MIN 46 FA-elig 42-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Khalil Greene 23 – 20-0.2 – –
Luther Hackman 28 arb 65-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Jay Witasick 30 FA-elig 46-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Shane Victorino 22 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Randy Keisler 27 – 3-0.4 – –
Wiki Gonzalez 29 arb 24-0.4 0.7 -1.5
Clay Condrey 27 pre-arb 9-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Mike Rivera 26 – 19-0.5 – –
Ben Howard 24 – 6-0.5 – –
Jaret Wright↔ ATL 27 FA-elig 39-0.6 0.6 -1.5
Brandon Villafuerte 27 arb 31-0.6 0.3 -1.4
Mike Bynum 25 pre-arb 13-0.7 0.3 -1.5

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Loretta4.4
Gary Matthews Jr.1.9
Xavier Nady1.4
Brian Giles1.2
Rondell White1.2
Matt Herges0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Ron Gant2.3
Brett Tomko1.4
Tom Lampkin1.1
Alan Embree1.0
Gene Kingsale0.6
Jason Middlebrook0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$46.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Trevor Hoffman3510.000$9.6M$2.5M$5.0M$4.5M$7.0M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Klesko3211.000$5.5M$6.0M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Nevin328.000$5.0M$8.5M$6.9MFREE AGENT
Rondell White3110.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay276.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Jarvis339.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Giles328.000$1.9M$8.8M$8.3M$7.7M$9.7M$9.7M$9.0M
Mark Loretta318.000$1.2M$2.5M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick307.000$750k$1.8MFREE AGENT
Gary Bennett318.000$700kFREE AGENT
Jaret Wright276.000$566kFREE AGENT
Dave Hansen3413.000$550k$497kFREE AGENT
Jesse Orosco4624.000$517kFREE AGENT
Keith Lockhart389.000$500kFREE AGENT
Joe Roa318.000$202kFREE AGENT
Rod Beck3412.000—FREE AGENT
Charles Nagy3613.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Xavier Nady243.000$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wiki Gonzalez294.000$700kARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Matthews Jr.284.000$644kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Merloni325.000$455kFREE AGENT
Kevin Walker263.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton253.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Matthews293.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luther Hackman284.000$345kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Buchanan293.000$325kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Villafuerte273.000$302kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Linebrink263.000$248kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlton Loewer295.000—FREE AGENT
Matt Herges334.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tollberg303.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Brian Lawrence272.000$625kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Vázquez262.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Peavy221.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Burroughs221.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Condrey271.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Bynum251.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Victorino220.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez211.000$241kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jermaine Clark262.000$12kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Sears27–—
Randy Keisler27–—
Donaldo Mendez252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Rivera262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Howard24–—
Dennis Tankersley24–—
Jason Bay240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Ojeda280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Khalil Greene230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Deago26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.