SEA⇄SDP

SEASEA Bill Bavasi net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2005 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy HoganOF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#131 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 30% → 29% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy WilliamsP·29y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#364 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.43 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.