SDP⇄MIA

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2004 odds 47% → 50% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Blaine NealP·26y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#104 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $31M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2004 odds 19% → 18% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben HowardP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#78 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.