RRosternomics
𝕏

Marlins MIA

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Larry Beinfest · GM: Michael Hill

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB -11.9
-11.9TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-14.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-7.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
31%dead money %14th/30
0.426win %24th/30
24.1roster fWAR23rd/30
-52surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$114Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFJustin Ruggiano 52GEmilio Bonifácio 51GGorkys Hernández 37G
LFLogan Morrison 59GBryan Petersen 51GJustin Ruggiano 31G
RFGiancarlo Stanton 117GGreg Dobbs 16GJustin Ruggiano 15G
SSJosé Reyes 160GDonovan Solano 5GDonnie Murphy 2G
2BDonovan Solano 58GEmilio Bonifácio 15GDonnie Murphy 13G
3BGreg Dobbs 36GDonnie Murphy 22GGil Velazquez 17G
1BCarlos Lee 145GLogan Morrison 21GGreg Dobbs 18G
STARTERSJosh Johnson 3.1WARRicky Nolasco 2.6WARMark Buehrle 1.0WARCarlos Zambrano 0.7WARWade LeBlanc 0.6WAR
CJohn Buck 105GBrett Hayes 33GRob Brantly 28G
DHLogan Morrison 3GHanley Ramirez 2GAustin Kearns 2G
BULLPEN★ Heath Bell 19svMike Dunn 18hSteve Cishek 13hRyan Webb 10hDan Jennings 2hChad Gaudin 1hAJ Ramos 1hChris Hatcher 0h
CJohn Buck 105 · Brett Hayes 33 · Rob Brantly 28
1BCarlos Lee 145 · Logan Morrison 21 · Greg Dobbs 18
2BDonovan Solano 58 · Emilio Bonifácio 15 · Donnie Murphy 13
3BGreg Dobbs 36 · Donnie Murphy 22 · Gil Velazquez 17
SSJosé Reyes 160 · Donovan Solano 5 · Donnie Murphy 2
LFLogan Morrison 59 · Bryan Petersen 51 · Justin Ruggiano 31
CFJustin Ruggiano 52 · Emilio Bonifácio 51 · Gorkys Hernández 37
RFGiancarlo Stanton 117 · Greg Dobbs 16 · Justin Ruggiano 15
DHLogan Morrison 3 · Hanley Ramirez 2 · Austin Kearns 2
SPJosh Johnson 3.1 · Ricky Nolasco 2.6 · Mark Buehrle 1.0 · Carlos Zambrano 0.7 · Wade LeBlanc 0.6
BP★ Heath Bell 19 · Mike Dunn 18 · Steve Cishek 13 · Ryan Webb 10 · Dan Jennings 2 · Chad Gaudin 1 · AJ Ramos 1 · Chris Hatcher 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Giancarlo Stanton 22 pre-arb 1235.1 0.5 +12.6
José Reyes 29 FA-elig 1603.8 10.0 -0.2
Josh Johnson 28 FA-elig 313.1 13.8 -5.7
Ricky Nolasco 29 FA-elig 312.6 9.0 -2.3
Justin Ruggiano 30 pre-arb 912.5 0.5 +6.0
Aníbal Sánchez↔ DET 28 FA-elig 192.1 4.9 +0.5
Omar Infante↔ DET 30 FA-elig 852.1 2.3 +3.0
Hanley Ramirez↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 931.4 8.9 -5.3
Donovan Solano 24 – 931.3 0.5 +2.7
Mark Buehrle 33 FA-elig 311.0 6.0 -3.4
Steve Cishek 26 pre-arb 680.8 0.5 +1.6
Carlos Zambrano 31 FA-elig 350.7 18.0 -16.1
Ryan Webb 26 arb 650.7 0.5 +1.4
Randy Choate↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 440.7 0.8 +0.9
Wade LeBlanc 27 pre-arb 250.6 0.5 +1.0
Emilio Bonifácio 27 arb 640.5 2.2 -0.8
Austin Kearns 32 FA-elig 870.5 0.6 +0.7
Nathan Eovaldi↔ LAD 22 pre-arb 120.5 0.3 +1.0
Rob Brantly 22 – 310.4 0.5 +0.7
Heath Bell 34 FA-elig 730.4 6.0 -5.1
Jacob Turner↔ DET 21 pre-arb 70.3 0.8 +0.0
John Buck 31 FA-elig 1060.2 6.0 -5.5
Mike Dunn 27 arb 600.2 0.5 -0.0
Chad Gaudin 29 FA-elig 460.1 0.6 -0.4
Sandy Rosario 26 pre-arb 40.1 0.5 -0.3
Adam Greenberg 31 – 1-0.0 – –
Logan Morrison 24 pre-arb 93-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Gorkys Hernández↔ PIT 24 – 45-0.1 0.3 -0.5
AJ Ramos 25 – 11-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Kevin Mattison 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Nick Green 33 arb 7-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Donnie Murphy 29 FA-elig 52-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Tom Koehler 26 – 8-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Gil Velazquez 32 – 19-0.2 – –
Brad Hand 22 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Chris Hatcher 27 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Edward Mujica↔ STL 28 FA-elig 41-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Dan Jennings 25 – 22-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Gaby Sanchez↔ PIT 28 arb 55-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Carlos Lee↔ HOU 36 FA-elig 81-0.4 10.3 -11.5
Scott Cousins 27 pre-arb 53-0.6 0.5 -2.0
Greg Dobbs 33 FA-elig 120-0.7 1.5 -3.4
Bryan Petersen 26 pre-arb 84-0.9 0.5 -2.8
Brett Hayes 28 arb 39-1.1 0.5 -3.3
Chris Coghlan 27 arb 39-1.4 0.5 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
José Reyes3.8
Justin Ruggiano2.5
Donovan Solano1.3
Mark Buehrle1.0
Carlos Zambrano0.7
Wade LeBlanc0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Javier Vazquez3.5
Mike Cameron1.2
Chris Volstad1.1
Burke Badenhop0.9
Dewayne Wise0.2
Juan Carlos Oviedo0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$114.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Carlos Zambrano3110.022$18.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Johnson286.026$13.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Lee3612.150$10.3MFREE AGENT
José Reyes298.111$10.0MFREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez286.014$8.9MFREE AGENT
Heath Bell346.099$6.0MFREE AGENT
John Buck3110.064$6.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Buehrle3311.078$6.0MFREE AGENT
Omar Infante3014.020$2.3MFREE AGENT
Greg Dobbs336.027$1.5M$1.5M$992kFREE AGENT
Randy Choate367.073$825kFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns329.113$600k$700kFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin296.104$600kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Ricky Nolasco295.142$9.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez285.099$4.9MFREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio273.066$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Mujica284.115$952kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Green334.067$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Murphy293.075$560kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jacob Turner210.029$822kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan272.120$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Dunn271.106$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Webb262.029$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Solano240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc271.139$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Ruggiano301.061$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Hayes282.017$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Mattison260.008$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy Rosario260.138$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Hatcher270.085$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Morrison241.069$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Petersen261.067$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek261.013$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giancarlo Stanton221.118$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Cousins271.108$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Ramos250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Brantly220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Koehler260.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Jennings250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gorkys Hernández240.000$309kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi220.053$262kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gaby Sanchez282.062$253kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hand220.062$207kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Greenberg31–—
Gil Velazquez320.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.