STL⇄MIA

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$3.2M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2012 odds 65% → 68% (+3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edward MujicaP·28y·R/R

+$2.1M+$2.1M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$3.2M net -0.6

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2012 odds 2% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zack Cox#883B·23y·L/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#25 overall draft pick → 0.48/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.