November 19, 2012
TOR⇄ MIA
MIA won this trade +$64.8M surplus TOR won this trade +6.0 WAR
received +$27.2M +$24.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$39.2M realized
received 13.0 ± 4 expected · 15.0 realized WAR
receives — most valuable first
Josh JohnsonP·29y·L/R
+$16.0M +$15.2M ± $15M
exp surplus realized −$20.0M 3.8 ± 2
exp WAR realized 0.4
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 3.7 /yr over 2.4 seasons
Talent 2.56 /yr blendedHorizon 1.5 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Emilio Bonifácio2B/OF·28y·B/R
+$7.2M +$7.2M ± $19M
exp surplus realized −$5.6M 2.2 ± 2
exp WAR realized -0.5
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 1.7 /yr over 1.6 season
Talent 1.08 /yr blendedHorizon 2.0 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
José ReyesSS·30y·B/R
+$6.4M +$6.4M ± $15M
exp surplus realized −$16.8M 4.6 ± 2
exp WAR realized 7.2
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 4.6 /yr over 2.4 seasons
Talent 3.13 /yr blendedHorizon 1.5 control yr × 0.99 age decline
why ▾ hide ▴
John BuckC·33y·R/R
+$2.4M +$0.8M ± $12M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.5 ± 2
exp WAR realized 0.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 0.6 /yr over 2.3 seasons
Talent 0.46 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Mark BuehrleP·34y·L/L
−$4.8M −$4.8M ± $12M
exp surplus realized +$3.2M 1.9 ± 2
exp WAR realized 7.9
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 2.6 /yr over 2.8 seasons
Talent 1.89 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
received +$32.0M +$32.0M ± $119M expected surplus · +$25.6M realized
received 10.9 ± 15 expected · 9.0 realized WAR
receives — most valuable first
Yunel Escobar3B/SS·31y·R/R
+$9.6M +$9.6M ± $12M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 1.8 ± 2
exp WAR realized 0.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 2.6 /yr over 2.4 seasons
Talent 1.78 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Jake Marisnick#64 OF·22y·R/R
+$8.8M +$8.8M ± $58M
exp surplus realized −$3.2M 2.7 ± 7
exp WAR realized -0.4
Prior BA #64 prospect (2013) → 0.48 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.48 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Justin Nicolino#86 P·22y·L/L
+$8.0M +$8.0M ± $58M
exp surplus realized −$0.8M 2.4 ± 7
exp WAR realized -0.0
Prior BA #86 prospect (2013) → 0.43 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.43 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Henderson ÁlvarezP·23y·R/R
+$4.0M +$4.0M ± $33M
exp surplus realized +$36.0M 1.4 ± 4
exp WAR realized 5.7
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 0.5 /yr over 1.4 season
Talent 0.36 /yr blendedHorizon 4.0 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Jeff MathisC·30y·R/R
+$1.6M +$1.6M ± $12M
exp surplus realized −$3.2M 0.8 ± 2
exp WAR realized 1.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23 /yr
Evidence recent form 1.2 /yr over 1.6 season
Talent 0.76 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Anthony DeSclafaniP·23y·R/R
+$1.6M +$1.6M ± $58M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 1.2 ± 7
exp WAR realized 0.1
Prior #199 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.21 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Adeiny HechavarríaSS·24y·R/R
−$1.6M −$1.6M ± $54M
exp surplus realized −$3.2M 0.6 ± 7
exp WAR realized 2.6
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form -0.4 /yr over 0.3 season
Talent 0.10 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.
Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →