MIA⇄TBR

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$8.0M net +1.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$16.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 5.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2013 odds 1% → 0% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derek Dietrich2B/OF·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 5.3

Prior

#79 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$8.0M net -1.9

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $11M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.8 ± 1 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2013 odds 46% → 60% (+13.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yunel Escobar3B/SS·30y·R/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.8± 1 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.78/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.