Rosternomics
MS

Matt Silverman

General manager for the Rays (2015–2016).

Across the full 2-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for traded-for surplus (99th percentile), and future-foundation returns (89th percentile). The clearest contrast is avoidance of dead payroll (19th percentile): a larger share of payroll has gone to players below 0.5 WAR than for most peers. Because the sample covers fewer than five seasons, those comparisons are descriptive rather than stable.

2 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

0 pennants · 0 playoff appearances · 148–176 (0.457)

Percentile Rankings

vs. execs with toyrs exp.
PoorAverageGreat
Trade Decision Quality
Roster Construction
Depth
5.5
Dead WAR
-6.2
Dead money %
44%
PoorAverageGreat
Talent Creation
Cheap-talent surplus
$51M
Drafted surplus
$7M
Traded-for surplus
$42M
Int'l surplus
$2M
Results & Efficiency
GM WAR
+1.1
TAB
+9.4
WAB
+0.5
$ / WAR
$1.7M
Net WAR/trade
-0.73

Overview

TeamRoleYear Pay
$M
Rel
Pay
Surp
$M
Surp
WAR
Dead
%
Cheap
$M
Draft
$M
Trd
$M
Int'l
$M
$ /
WAR
WAR Depth Dead
WAR
HG Trade Net/
Trd
FA R5 RFA PPA CPA WAB TAB W-L% POPenWS
Rays GM 2015 80–82 $73 60 +36 +11.2 52% +64 +7 +54 +3 $1.8M 34.3 7.0 -7.1 +16.8 +8.6 +1.73 -6.8 -0.3 +0.74 1.72 0.16 +4.6 +6.3 0.494
Rays GM 2016 68–94 $58 46 +33 +10.2 36% +37 +6 +29 +2 $1.7M 28.1 4.0 -5.4 +6.5 -16.7 -2.78 +4.3 +0.0 +0.64 0.51 0.10 -4.1 +3.1 0.420
Career total (1985+ data) $130 53 +68 +21.4 44% +51 +7 +42 +2 $1.7M 62.3 5.5 -6.2 +23.3 -8.0 -0.73 -2.5 -0.3 +0.52 1.42 0.14 +0.5 +9.4 0.457

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+23.3
Trade-8.0
Free agency-2.5
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.3
Sourcing mix: 57% draft · 6% FA · 36% trade · 1% R5

Trades

Trades made — 14 deals credited to Matt Silverman, best expected value first; surplus is realized value in $M

2016 · TBR / SFG
TBR · Matt Silverman +$8.0M
Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox, Michael Santos
SFG · Bobby Evans −$8.0M
Matt Moore
TBR came out ahead by $8.0M
2016 · COL / TBR
COL · Jeff Bridich +$240.8M
Jake McGee, Germán Márquez
TBR · Matt Silverman −$240.8M
Corey Dickerson, Kevin Padlo
COL came out ahead by $240.8M
2016 · MIN / TBR
MIN · Rob Antony +$0.8M
cash / PTBNL
TBR · Matt Silverman −$0.8M
Oswaldo Arcia
MIN came out ahead by $0.8M
2015 · TBR / SEA
TBR · Matt Silverman +$1.6M
Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Danny Farquhar
SEA · Jeff Kingston −$1.6M
Nate Karns, C. J. Riefenhauser, Boog Powell
TBR came out ahead by $1.6M
2016 · TBR / SEA
TBR · Matt Silverman +$11.2M
Dalton Kelly, Andrew Kittredge, Dylan Thompson
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$11.2M
Richie Shaffer, Taylor Motter
TBR came out ahead by $11.2M
2015 · TBR / MIN
TBR · Matt Silverman +$0.8M
Chih-Wei Hu, Alexis Tapia
MIN · Terry Ryan −$0.8M
Kevin Jepsen
TBR came out ahead by $0.8M
2015 · TBR / DET
TBR · Matt Silverman +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
DET · Dave Dombrowski +$0.0M
Alexi Casilla
Even trade
2015 · TBR / MIA
TBR · Matt Silverman +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
MIA · Mike Berger +$0.0M
Enderson Franco
Even trade
2015 · TBR / ANA
TBR · Matt Silverman +$8.0M
Eduar Lopez
ANA · Bill Stoneman −$8.0M
David DeJesus
TBR came out ahead by $8.0M
2015 · ANA / TBR
ANA · Bill Stoneman +$0.8M
Kyle Winkler
TBR · Matt Silverman −$0.8M
Marc Krauss
ANA came out ahead by $0.8M
2015 · TBR / SEA
TBR · Matt Silverman +$2.4M
Erasmo Ramírez
SEA · Jeff Kingston −$2.4M
Mike Montgomery
TBR came out ahead by $2.4M
2016 · TBR / BAL
TBR · Matt Silverman +$5.6M
Jonah Heim
BAL · Dan Duquette −$5.6M
Steve Pearce
TBR came out ahead by $5.6M
2016 · CLE / TBR
CLE · Chris Antonetti +$1.6M
Brandon Guyer
TBR · Matt Silverman −$1.6M
Jhonleider Salinas, Nathan Lukes
CLE came out ahead by $1.6M
2015 · TBR / OAK
TBR · Matt Silverman +$4.0M
John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, Boog Powell
OAK · Billy Beane −$4.0M
Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar
TBR came out ahead by $4.0M

Players acquired — 42 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr RFA PPA CPA
Brandon Lowe 2B TBR Draft 2015 8 +16.8 +2.1
Logan Forsythe 2B TBR Trade 2015 2 +6.8 +3.4 +0.14 6.5% 0.63%
Steven Souza OF TBR Trade 2015 3 +6.3 +2.1 +3.02 2.7% 0.24%
Josh Lowe OF TBR Draft 2016 4 +4.5 +1.1
Daniel Robertson 2B/3B/SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +3.3 +1.1 +1.71
Corey Dickerson OF TBR Trade 2016 2 +3.0 +1.5 +1.92 0.3% 0.06%
Asdrúbal Cabrera SS TBR Free agency 2015 1 +2.6 +2.6 4.4% 0.41%
Matt Duffy 3B TBR Trade 2016 3 +2.5 +0.8 +8.68 0.0% 0.01%
Andrew Kittredge P TBR Trade 2016 5 +1.9 +0.4 -0.00
Erasmo Ramírez P TBR Trade 2015 2 +1.8 +0.9 -0.72 3.9% 0.36%
Mike Brosseau 3B TBR Intl FA 2016 2 +1.7 +0.9
Steve Pearce 1B/OF TBR Trade 2016 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.7% 0.14%
Nate Karns P TBR Trade 2015 1 +1.5 +1.5 -5.39 2.8% 0.25%
Brad Miller SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +1.4 +0.5 +0.19 0.7% 0.13%
Chase Whitley P TBR Trade 2016 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1% 0.02%
John Jaso C TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 +1.71
Logan Morrison 1B/OF TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 +0.19 0.3% 0.06%
Xavier Cedeño P TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 1.3% 0.11%
J. P. Arencibia C TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.0% 0.09%
Wilson Ramos C TBR Free agency 2016 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.9% 0.09%
Adam Kolarek P TBR Rule 5 2015 1 +0.5 +0.5
Joey Butler DH/OF TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6% 0.05%
Shane Peterson OF TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4% 0.04%
Nathaniel Lowe 1B TBR Draft 2016 2 +0.2 +0.1
Tyler Sturdevant P TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2
Grady Sizemore OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3% 0.02%
Bobby Wilson C TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1% 0.02%
José Domínguez P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.05 0.1% 0.01%
Daniel Nava OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3% 0.02%
Ronald Belisario P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.01%
Eddie Gamboa P TBR Trade 2016 -0.0
Chih-Wei Hu P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 +0.57
Diego Moreno P TBR Free agency 2016 -0.0
Everett Teaford P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Ryan Webb P TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Alexei Ramírez SS TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Justin Marks P TBR Free agency 2016 -0.2
Allan Dykstra 1B TBR Trade 2015 -0.3
Jaff Decker OF TBR Free agency 2016 -0.4
Dana Eveland P TBR Free agency 2015 -0.5
Jake Elmore SS/OF TBR Free agency 2015 -1.0
Steve Geltz P TBR Trade 2015 1 -1.0 -1.0 0.3% 0.03%

Trade-side columns: RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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