RRosternomics
MS

Matt Silverman

General manager for the Rays (2015–2016).

2 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record148–176
Win %0.457
+1.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.150th/195 execs
5.5Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)129th/195 execs
-6.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)145th/195 execs
44%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)157th/195 execs
$51MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track14th/195 execs
$7MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)86th/195 execs
$42MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade4th/195 execs
$2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees51st/195 execs
+9.8TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total52nd/195 execs
+0.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)67th/195 execs
1.42Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)108th/195 execs
+68Roster surplus $M20th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Rays GM 2015–2016 2 +0.9 +0.43 +9.8 +21.4 +23.3 -8.1 -2.5 -0.3 1.42 0.457 +68
Career total (1985+ data) 2 +0.9 +9.8 +21.4 +23.3 -8.1 -2.5 -0.3 1.42 0.457 +68

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+23.3
Trade-8.1
Free agency-2.5
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.3
Sourcing mix: 57% draft · 6% FA · 36% trade · 1% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Matt Silverman's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 42 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Brandon Lowe 2B TBR Draft 2015 8 +16.8 +2.1
Logan Forsythe 2B TBR Trade 2015 2 +6.8 +3.4 6.4
Steven Souza OF TBR Trade 2015 3 +6.3 +2.1 2.7
Josh Lowe OF TBR Draft 2016 4 +4.5 +1.1
Daniel Robertson 2B/3B/SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +3.3 +1.1
Corey Dickerson OF TBR Trade 2016 2 +3.0 +1.5 0.3
Asdrúbal Cabrera SS TBR Free agency 2015 1 +2.6 +2.6 4.5
Matt Duffy 3B TBR Trade 2016 3 +2.5 +0.8 0.0
Andrew Kittredge P TBR Trade 2016 5 +1.9 +0.4
Erasmo Ramírez P TBR Trade 2015 2 +1.8 +0.9 3.9
Mike Brosseau 3B TBR Intl FA 2016 2 +1.7 +0.9
Steve Pearce 1B/OF TBR Trade 2016 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.7
Nate Karns P TBR Trade 2015 1 +1.5 +1.5 2.8
Brad Miller SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +1.4 +0.5 0.7
Chase Whitley P TBR Trade 2016 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1
John Jaso C TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3
Logan Morrison 1B/OF TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 0.3
Xavier Cedeño P TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 1.3
J. P. Arencibia C TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.0
Wilson Ramos C TBR Free agency 2016 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.9
Adam Kolarek P TBR Rule 5 2015 1 +0.5 +0.5
Joey Butler DH/OF TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
Shane Peterson OF TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4
Nathaniel Lowe 1B TBR Draft 2016 2 +0.2 +0.1
Tyler Sturdevant P TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2
Grady Sizemore OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Bobby Wilson C TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
José Domínguez P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Daniel Nava OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Ronald Belisario P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Eddie Gamboa P TBR Trade 2016 -0.0
Chih-Wei Hu P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0
Diego Moreno P TBR Free agency 2016 -0.0
Everett Teaford P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ryan Webb P TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Alexei Ramírez SS TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Justin Marks P TBR Free agency 2016 -0.2
Allan Dykstra 1B TBR Trade 2015 -0.3
Jaff Decker OF TBR Free agency 2016 -0.4
Dana Eveland P TBR Free agency 2015 -0.5
Jake Elmore SS/OF TBR Free agency 2015 -1.0
Steve Geltz P TBR Trade 2015 1 -1.0 -1.0 0.4

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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