TBR⇄SEA

TBRTBR Matt Silverman net +$11.2M net +2.7

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 15% → 17% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dalton Kelly1B·22y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1145 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dylan Thompson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew KittredgeP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

#1360 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$11.2M net -2.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2017 odds 11% → 10% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Richie Shaffer1B/DH·26y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#25 overall draft pick → 0.39/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Taylor MotterSS·27y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

#540 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.