RRosternomics
𝕏

Rays TBR

‹ ›

GM: Matt Silverman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 9 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB +6.4
+6.4TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+4.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-7.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
52%dead money %23rd/30
0.494win %17th/30
34.3roster fWAR13th/30
+35surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$73Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 148GBrandon Guyer 23GMikie Mahtook 13G
LFBrandon Guyer 60GGrady Sizemore 32GJoey Butler 30G
RFSteven Souza Jr. 103GGrady Sizemore 42GBrandon Guyer 41G
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 136GTim Beckham 28GNick Franklin 11G
2BLogan Forsythe 126GTim Beckham 38GNick Franklin 17G
3BEvan Longoria 148GJake Elmore 9GLogan Forsythe 9G
1BJames Loney 101GLogan Forsythe 26GJake Elmore 25G
STARTERSChris Archer 5.0WARJake Odorizzi 2.8WARErasmo Ramírez 2.3WARAlex Colomé 1.8WARNate Karns 1.6WAR
CRené Rivera 107GCurt Casali 37GJ.P. Arencibia 23G
DHJohn Jaso 48GJoey Butler 43GDavid DeJesus 22G
BULLPEN★ Brad Boxberger 41svSteve Geltz 19hXavier Cedeño 19hJake McGee 19hBrandon Gomes 16hEnny Romero 3hErnesto Frieri 0hKirby Yates 0h
CRené Rivera 107 · Curt Casali 37 · J.P. Arencibia 23
1BJames Loney 101 · Logan Forsythe 26 · Jake Elmore 25
2BLogan Forsythe 126 · Tim Beckham 38 · Nick Franklin 17
3BEvan Longoria 148 · Jake Elmore 9 · Logan Forsythe 9
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 136 · Tim Beckham 28 · Nick Franklin 11
LFBrandon Guyer 60 · Grady Sizemore 32 · Joey Butler 30
CFKevin Kiermaier 148 · Brandon Guyer 23 · Mikie Mahtook 13
RFSteven Souza Jr. 103 · Grady Sizemore 42 · Brandon Guyer 41
DHJohn Jaso 48 · Joey Butler 43 · David DeJesus 22
SPChris Archer 5.0 · Jake Odorizzi 2.8 · Erasmo Ramírez 2.3 · Alex Colomé 1.8 · Nate Karns 1.6
BP★ Brad Boxberger 41 · Steve Geltz 19 · Xavier Cedeño 19 · Jake McGee 19 · Brandon Gomes 16 · Enny Romero 3 · Ernesto Frieri 0 · Kirby Yates 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Archer 26 arb 345.0 1.2 +14.8
Kevin Kiermaier 25 pre-arb 1514.3 0.5 +12.9
Logan Forsythe 28 arb 1534.1 1.1 +11.7
Evan Longoria 29 FA-elig 1603.8 11.0 +1.0
Jake Odorizzi 25 arb 282.8 0.5 +8.4
Asdrúbal Cabrera 29 FA-elig 1432.6 7.5 +0.8
Erasmo Ramírez 25 arb 342.3 0.5 +6.7
Brandon Guyer 29 arb 1281.9 0.5 +5.6
Alex Colomé 26 pre-arb 431.8 0.5 +5.0
Nate Karns 27 pre-arb 271.6 0.5 +4.5
Mikie Mahtook 25 – 411.5 0.2 +4.6
Steven Souza Jr. 26 pre-arb 1101.5 0.5 +4.2
Curt Casali 26 pre-arb 381.2 0.3 +3.4
Jake McGee 28 arb 391.1 3.5 -0.1
Drew Smyly 26 arb 121.0 2.6 +0.5
Xavier Cedeño↔ WSN 28 arb 610.7 0.5 +1.7
John Jaso 31 FA-elig 700.7 3.2 -1.0
J.P. Arencibia 29 arb 240.6 0.1 +1.6
Enny Romero 24 pre-arb 230.4 0.2 +1.1
Matt Andriese 25 pre-arb 250.4 0.5 +0.7
David DeJesus↔ ANA 35 FA-elig 820.4 3.7 -2.5
Joey Butler 29 pre-arb 880.3 0.4 +0.6
Desmond Jennings 28 arb 280.3 3.1 -2.2
Matt Moore 26 arb 120.3 3.0 -2.2
Richie Shaffer 24 – 310.2 0.1 +0.6
Steve Geltz 27 pre-arb 700.2 0.5 +0.1
Daniel Nava↔ BOS 32 arb 310.1 1.0 -0.5
Grady Sizemore↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 580.1 1.2 -0.8
Ryan Brett 23 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.4
José Domínguez 24 pre-arb 40.1 0.0 +0.2
Ronald Belisario 32 – 60.0 – –
Tim Beckham 25 pre-arb 830.0 0.5 -0.4
Everett Teaford 31 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 -0.0
Preston Guilmet↔ MIL 27 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Brad Boxberger 27 arb 69-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Kevin Jepsen↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 46-0.1 1.9 -2.1
Jeff Beliveau 28 arb 5-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Marc Krauss↔ ANA 27 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Bobby Wilson↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 25-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Grant Balfour 37 – 6-0.2 7.0 -7.6
Luke Maile 24 – 15-0.2 0.1 -0.8
C.J. Riefenhauser 25 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Allan Dykstra 28 – 13-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Andrew Bellatti 23 – 17-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Brandon Gomes 30 pre-arb 64-0.4 0.5 -1.8
René Rivera 31 FA-elig 110-0.4 1.2 -2.6
Ernesto Frieri 29 FA-elig 22-0.5 0.8 -2.5
Kirby Yates 28 pre-arb 20-0.7 0.5 -2.8
Nick Franklin 24 pre-arb 44-0.8 1.0 -3.7
Jake Elmore 28 pre-arb 51-1.0 0.2 -3.3
James Loney 31 FA-elig 104-1.1 8.7 -12.2

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Asdrúbal Cabrera2.6
Erasmo Ramírez2.3
Mikie Mahtook1.5
Steven Souza Jr.1.5
Xavier Cedeño0.7
John Jaso0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
David Price3.2
Matt Joyce1.5
Ryan Hanigan1.5
Joel Peralta0.5
Yunel Escobar0.4
Sean Rodríguez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$72.6M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Evan Longoria296.170$11.0MFREE AGENT
James Loney318.012$8.7MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera297.027$7.5MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour3710.099$7.0MFREE AGENT
David DeJesus3510.146$3.7MFREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore3210.029$1.2MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jake McGee283.127$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso315.032$3.2MFREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings283.101$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Moore263.017$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Jepsen304.163$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
René Rivera313.082$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe283.113$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava323.045$956kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernesto Frieri294.066$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson323.090$312kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Arencibia294.012$108kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Belisario324.151—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Drew Smyly262.154$2.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Archer261.156$1.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Franklin240.162$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez251.100$523kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi251.042$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger271.109$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer292.066$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kiermaier250.131$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Beliveau280.154$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Yates280.114$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé260.118$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Geltz270.035$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Karns270.033$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.261.000$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham250.015$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Andriese250.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño281.060$477kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Gomes302.085$469kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Butler290.048$385kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali260.072$320kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Elmore281.089$222kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Bellatti230.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enny Romero240.008$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mikie Mahtook250.000$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Shaffer240.000$130kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.J. Riefenhauser250.101$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile240.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allan Dykstra28–$47k
José Domínguez240.119$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Everett Teaford311.093$17kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Brett230.041$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Krauss272.108$12kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Guilmet271.034$7kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.