WSN⇄TBR

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$4.0M net +0.6

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $45M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 6.0 ± 6 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2014 odds 87% → 89% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José LobatónC·29y·B/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.95/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Drew VettlesonRF·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#42 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Felipe VázquezP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net +$4.0M net -0.6

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $31M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2014 odds 19% → 17% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nate KarnsP·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#309 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.