BAL⇄TBR

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$5.6M net +0.1

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 3.1 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2016 odds 27% → 27% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Pearce1B/OF·33y·R/R

+$17.7M+$17.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 3.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Matt Silverman net +$5.6M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2016 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonah HeimC·21y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.