MIN⇄TBR

MINMIN Rob Antony net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2016 odds 2% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Matt Silverman net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2016 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Oswaldo ArciaOF·25y·L/R

+$3.7M+$3.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.