SEA⇄ARI

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$44.0M net +7.0

received +$45.6M+$45.6M ± $47M expected surplus · +$30.4M realized received 10.0 ± 6 expected · 6.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2023 odds 69% → 74% (+4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Rojas2B/3B·29y·L/R

+$42.2M+$42.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 7.6± 5 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.99/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Dominic CanzoneDH/OF·25y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

#242 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan Bliss2B·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#42 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$44.0M net -7.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2023 odds 15% → 12% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul SewaldP·33y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.