RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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President of baseball ops: Jerry Dipoto · GM: Justin Hollander

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB +5.4
+5.4TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+4.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
47%dead money %22nd/30
0.525win %14th/30
38.0roster fWAR13th/30
+17surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$141Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFJulio Rodríguez 131GVictor Robles 39GRandy Arozarena 9G
LFRandy Arozarena 140GLuke Raley 60GDominic Canzone 24G
RFMitch Haniger 90GDominic Canzone 38GLuke Raley 36G
SSJ.P. Crawford 104GDylan Moore 49GLeo Rivas 26G
2BJorge Polanco 112GDylan Moore 37GRyan Bliss 25G
3BJosh Rojas 131GDylan Moore 45GLuis Urías 38G
1BJustin Turner 43GLuke Raley 41GTyler Locklear 16G
STARTERSGeorge Kirby 4.1WARLogan Gilbert 4.0WARBryce Miller 2.7WARLuis Castillo 2.3WARBryan Woo 2.2WAR
CCal Raleigh 135GMitch Garver 25GSeby Zavala 18G
DHJustin Turner 86GMitch Garver 83GMitch Haniger 25G
BULLPEN★ Andrés Muñoz 22svAustin Voth 15hYimi García 13hTrent Thornton 10hCollin Snider 9hTayler Saucedo 7hJT Chargois 2hJonathan Hernández 0h
CCal Raleigh 135 · Mitch Garver 25 · Seby Zavala 18
1BJustin Turner 43 · Luke Raley 41 · Tyler Locklear 16
2BJorge Polanco 112 · Dylan Moore 37 · Ryan Bliss 25
3BJosh Rojas 131 · Dylan Moore 45 · Luis Urías 38
SSJ.P. Crawford 104 · Dylan Moore 49 · Leo Rivas 26
LFRandy Arozarena 140 · Luke Raley 60 · Dominic Canzone 24
CFJulio Rodríguez 131 · Victor Robles 39 · Randy Arozarena 9
RFMitch Haniger 90 · Dominic Canzone 38 · Luke Raley 36
DHJustin Turner 86 · Mitch Garver 83 · Mitch Haniger 25
SPGeorge Kirby 4.1 · Logan Gilbert 4.0 · Bryce Miller 2.7 · Luis Castillo 2.3 · Bryan Woo 2.2
BP★ Andrés Muñoz 22 · Austin Voth 15 · Yimi García 13 · Trent Thornton 10 · Collin Snider 9 · Tayler Saucedo 7 · JT Chargois 2 · Jonathan Hernández 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cal Raleigh 27 arb 1535.4 0.8 +21.7
George Kirby 26 pre-arb 334.1 0.8 +16.5
Logan Gilbert 27 arb 334.0 4.0 +12.7
Julio Rodríguez 23 pre-arb 1433.9 12.2 +4.3
Victor Robles↔ WSN 27 FA-elig 773.2 2.2 +11.1
Bryce Miller 25 pre-arb 312.7 0.8 +10.7
Dylan Moore 31 arb 1352.4 3.1 +6.9
Luis Castillo 31 FA-elig 302.3 24.1 -14.6
Luke Raley 29 arb 1372.3 0.8 +8.7
Bryan Woo 24 pre-arb 222.2 0.7 +8.6
Josh Rojas 30 arb 1431.8 3.1 +4.5
J.P. Crawford 29 FA-elig 1051.6 11.0 -4.2
Randy Arozarena↔ TBR 29 arb 540.9 2.8 +1.1
Justin Turner↔ TOR 39 FA-elig 480.7 4.5 -1.6
Andrés Muñoz 25 arb 600.6 2.2 +0.4
Trent Thornton 30 arb 710.6 1.2 +1.2
Collin Snider 28 pre-arb 420.5 0.7 +1.2
Ryan Bliss 24 pre-arb 330.4 0.7 +1.1
Eduard Bazardo 28 arb 230.3 0.9 +0.3
Jorge Polanco 30 FA-elig 1180.3 10.5 -9.4
Luis Urías 27 FA-elig 410.2 5.0 -4.2
Tayler Saucedo 31 arb 530.2 0.8 +0.1
Gregory Santos 24 arb 80.2 0.8 +0.1
Gabe Speier 29 arb 290.2 0.8 +0.0
Leo Rivas 26 pre-arb 430.1 0.7 -0.4
Dominic Canzone 26 pre-arb 670.1 0.7 -0.5
Samad Taylor 25 pre-arb 30.0 0.7 -0.6
Cade Marlowe 27 pre-arb 80.0 0.7 -0.6
Tyson Miller↔ CHC 28 arb 90.0 0.1 -0.0
Ryne Stanek↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 460.0 2.9 -2.8
Jonathan Hernández↔ TEX 27 arb 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Brett de Geus↔ MIA 26 arb 40.0 0.2 -0.2
Kirby Snead 29 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Austin Voth 32 FA-elig 68-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Troy Taylor 22 – 21-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Seby Zavala 30 arb 18-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Jhonathan Díaz 27 arb 5-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Cody Bolton 26 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.7 -1.0
JT Chargois↔ MIA 33 FA-elig 21-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Matt Bowman↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Jonatan Clase↔ TOR 22 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Jason Vosler 30 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Tyler Locklear 23 pre-arb 16-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Ty France↔ CIN 29 arb 88-0.2 4.3 -5.2
Sam Haggerty 30 arb 8-0.2 0.9 -1.8
Yimi García↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 10-0.4 1.5 -3.1
Emerson Hancock 25 pre-arb 12-0.4 0.7 -2.4
Mitch Garver 33 FA-elig 114-0.4 10.5 -12.1
Mike Baumann↔ ANA 28 arb 18-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Mitch Haniger 33 FA-elig 121-0.5 16.0 -18.1

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Victor Robles3.2
Luke Raley2.3
Randy Arozarena0.9
Justin Turner0.7
Collin Snider0.5
Ryan Bliss0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Eugenio Suárez3.5
Teoscar Hernández1.9
José Caballero1.9
Jarred Kelenic1.5
Justin Topa1.0
Paul Sewald1.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$141.0M
2025 guaranteed
$58.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Luis Castillo316.101$24.1M$24.1M$24.1M$24.1M$25.0MVESTFREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger337.048$16.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Rodríguez232.000$12.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$18.0MCLUB
J.P. Crawford295.163$11.0M$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Mitch Garver336.045$10.5MFREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco307.024$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Justin Turner3913.045$4.5MFREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek326.038$2.9MFREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz254.080$2.2M$2.7M$7.0MCLUB$8.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Yimi García338.149$1.5MVESTFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Luis Urías274.098$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France294.089$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore315.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Josh Rojas303.126$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena293.129$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles275.033$2.2MFREE AGENT
Austin Voth324.115$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton303.148$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Haggerty303.044$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Chargois334.101$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett de Geus263.000$228kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Hernández273.131$129kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman334.043$37kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Logan Gilbert272.144$4.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduard Bazardo280.168$871kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kirby261.151$799kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh272.085$795kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seby Zavala302.045$757kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley291.106$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Speier292.030$753kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Saucedo312.107$753kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Miller250.153$753kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Santos241.055$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Woo240.121$749kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Snider280.167$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Canzone260.087$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emerson Hancock250.054$741kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Bolton260.076$741kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Locklear230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Rivas260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonathan Díaz270.079$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samad Taylor250.067$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Marlowe270.074$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Bliss240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonatan Clase220.000$541kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baumann281.072$236kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Taylor220.000$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Snead291.137$135kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Miller280.071$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vosler300.138$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.