SEA⇄TBR⇄STL

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$2.4M net +0.7

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.1 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2026 odds 3.5% → 4.4% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brendan Donovan2B/OF·29y·L/R

+$7.3M+$7.3M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.1± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.87/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.57 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.5 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2026 odds 41.7% → 43.2% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben Williamson2B/3B·25y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#57 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Chaim Bloom net +$1.6M net -1.0

received +$41.6M+$41.6M ± $42M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 7.4 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jurrangelo Cijntje#71P·23y·S/S

+$32.7M+$32.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#15 overall draft pick → 0.63/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Tai PeeteOF·20y·L/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#30 overall draft pick → 0.39/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Colton LedbetterCF·24y·L/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#55 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Draft pick (≈#70)

+$1.6M+$1.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#70 draft slot (traded pick) → 0.19/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.