SEA⇄BOS

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2023 odds 73% → 74% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Easton McGeeP·25y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#120 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2023 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.