RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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President of baseball ops: Jerry Dipoto · GM: Justin Hollander

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB +13.3
+13.3TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
38%dead money %16th/30
0.543win %10th/30
45.8roster fWAR6th/30
+48surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$134Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFJulio Rodríguez 152GJarred Kelenic 8GSam Haggerty 4G
LFJarred Kelenic 79GDominic Canzone 26GCade Marlowe 24G
RFTeoscar Hernández 135GJarred Kelenic 21GDominic Canzone 13G
SSJ.P. Crawford 144GJosé Caballero 21GDylan Moore 9G
2BJosé Caballero 64GJosh Rojas 49GDylan Moore 23G
3BEugenio Suárez 159GJosh Rojas 48GJosé Caballero 9G
1BTy France 158GMike Ford 10GSam Haggerty 4G
STARTERSGeorge Kirby 4.2WARLuis Castillo 3.3WARLogan Gilbert 3.0WARBryce Miller 1.8WARBryan Woo 0.9WAR
CCal Raleigh 128GTom Murphy 41GBrian O'Keefe 8G
DHMike Ford 64GTeoscar Hernández 28GAJ Pollock 25G
BULLPEN★ Andrés Muñoz 13svMatt Brash 24hJustin Topa 23hGabe Speier 17hTrent Thornton 4hTayler Saucedo 3hDominic Leone 3hIsaiah Campbell 2h
CCal Raleigh 128 · Tom Murphy 41 · Brian O'Keefe 8
1BTy France 158 · Mike Ford 10 · Sam Haggerty 4
2BJosé Caballero 64 · Josh Rojas 49 · Dylan Moore 23
3BEugenio Suárez 159 · Josh Rojas 48 · José Caballero 9
SSJ.P. Crawford 144 · José Caballero 21 · Dylan Moore 9
LFJarred Kelenic 79 · Dominic Canzone 26 · Cade Marlowe 24
CFJulio Rodríguez 152 · Jarred Kelenic 8 · Sam Haggerty 4
RFTeoscar Hernández 135 · Jarred Kelenic 21 · Dominic Canzone 13
DHMike Ford 64 · Teoscar Hernández 28 · AJ Pollock 25
SPGeorge Kirby 4.2 · Luis Castillo 3.3 · Logan Gilbert 3.0 · Bryce Miller 1.8 · Bryan Woo 0.9
BP★ Andrés Muñoz 13 · Matt Brash 24 · Justin Topa 23 · Gabe Speier 17 · Trent Thornton 4 · Tayler Saucedo 3 · Dominic Leone 3 · Isaiah Campbell 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Julio Rodríguez 22 pre-arb 1555.8 6.2 +17.0
J.P. Crawford 28 FA-elig 1454.8 11.0 +8.2
Cal Raleigh 26 pre-arb 1454.3 0.8 +16.4
George Kirby 25 pre-arb 314.2 0.8 +16.0
Eugenio Suárez 31 FA-elig 1623.5 11.3 +2.5
Luis Castillo 30 FA-elig 333.3 11.4 +1.6
Logan Gilbert 26 pre-arb 323.0 0.8 +11.2
Matt Brash 25 pre-arb 782.0 0.7 +7.3
Teoscar Hernández 30 FA-elig 1601.9 14.0 -6.5
José Caballero 26 – 1041.9 0.7 +6.8
Bryce Miller 24 – 251.8 0.6 +6.7
Jarred Kelenic 23 pre-arb 1051.5 0.7 +5.3
Ty France 28 arb 1581.3 4.1 +0.9
Andrés Muñoz 24 arb 521.2 1.7 +3.1
Josh Rojas↔ ARI 29 arb 461.1 1.1 +3.1
Justin Topa 32 pre-arb 751.0 0.7 +3.5
Paul Sewald↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 451.0 2.8 +1.0
Bryan Woo 23 – 180.9 0.5 +3.1
Cade Marlowe 26 – 340.9 0.2 +3.2
Tom Murphy 32 FA-elig 470.8 1.6 +1.7
Mike Ford 30 pre-arb 840.6 0.5 +2.0
Trevor Gott↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 300.6 0.6 +1.8
Marco Gonzales 31 FA-elig 100.6 6.8 -4.5
Gabe Speier 28 pre-arb 690.6 0.7 +1.5
Dylan Moore 30 arb 670.5 2.1 +0.0
Isaiah Campbell 25 – 270.3 0.3 +0.8
Tayler Saucedo 30 pre-arb 520.2 0.6 +0.1
Easton McGee 25 pre-arb 10.2 0.6 +0.1
Emerson Hancock 24 – 30.1 0.2 +0.4
Sam Haggerty 29 arb 520.1 0.7 -0.2
Eduard Bazardo↔ BAL 27 pre-arb 90.0 0.1 +0.1
Penn Murfee 29 pre-arb 160.0 0.7 -0.6
Darren McCaughan 27 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Luis Torrens↔ CHC 27 FA-elig 50.0 0.3 -0.3
José Rodríguez 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Ryder Ryan 28 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Prelander Berroa 23 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Luke Weaver↔ CIN 29 FA-elig 5-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Robbie Ray 31 FA-elig 1-0.0 21.0 -21.1
Trent Thornton↔ TOR 29 arb 23-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Tommy Milone 36 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
J.B. Bukauskas↔ MIL 26 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Devin Sweet↔ OAK 26 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Ty Adcock 26 – 12-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Matt Festa 30 arb 8-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Tommy La Stella 34 FA-elig 12-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Taylor Trammell 25 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Juan Then 23 – 9-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Brian O'Keefe 29 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Diego Castillo 29 arb 8-0.2 3.0 -3.8
Dominic Canzone↔ ARI 25 – 44-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Cooper Hummel 28 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.7 -1.8
Dominic Leone↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 9-0.4 0.1 -1.8
AJ Pollock↔ SFG 35 FA-elig 49-0.5 6.4 -8.3
Chris Flexen↔ COL 28 FA-elig 17-0.7 4.7 -7.3
Kolten Wong↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 67-0.9 7.7 -11.2

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Teoscar Hernández1.9
José Caballero1.9
Bryce Miller1.8
Josh Rojas1.1
Justin Topa1.0
Bryan Woo0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Erik Swanson1.7
Adam Frazier1.3
Mitch Haniger0.9
Jesse Winker0.8
Carlos Santana0.7
Matthew Boyd0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$133.5M
2024 guaranteed
$72.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Robbie Ray318.007$21.0M$23.0M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo305.101$11.4M$24.1M$24.1M$24.1M$24.1M$25.0MVESTFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez318.061$11.3MFREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford284.163$11.0M$11.0M$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Kolten Wong329.045$7.7MFREE AGENT
AJ Pollock3511.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Julio Rodríguez221.000$6.2M$12.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M
Andrés Muñoz243.080$1.7M$2.2M$2.7M$7.0MCLUB$8.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella349.000$720kFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone368.116$100kFREE AGENT
Dominic Leone316.153$85kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Teoscar Hernández305.097$14.0MFREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales315.102$6.8MFREE AGENT
Ty France283.089$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo294.118$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Sewald334.072$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore304.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy325.092$1.6MFREE AGENT
Trent Thornton293.073$852kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Festa305.000$725kFREE AGENT
Trevor Gott304.057$562kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Weaver295.112$345kFREE AGENT
Luis Torrens273.091$333kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Chris Flexen282.107$4.7MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rojas292.152$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gilbert261.144$767kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh261.085$758kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kirby250.135$758kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Kelenic230.169$729kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Penn Murfee290.169$727kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Trammell251.029$727kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Haggerty292.093$727kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Brash250.121$726kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Hummel280.132$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Speier281.030$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Topa322.044$677kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Caballero260.000$654kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Saucedo301.112$642kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Easton McGee250.007$600kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Miller240.000$592kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Ford302.058$468kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Woo230.000$465kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaiah Campbell250.000$321kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Marlowe260.000$205kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emerson Hancock240.000$205kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Canzone250.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Adcock260.000$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian O'Keefe290.006$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Then23–$97k
Eduard Bazardo270.129$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryder Ryan280.000$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren McCaughan270.007$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.B. Bukauskas261.033$32kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Sweet260.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Prelander Berroa230.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Rodríguez27–$8k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.