SEA⇄SFG

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$2.4M net +0.6

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 28% → 28% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Ford1B/DH·29y·L/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net −$2.4M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2022 odds 22% → 22% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.