RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB -0.0
-0.0TAB — talent above budget14th/30
-0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars14th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
23%dead money %7th/30
0.512win %14th/30
36.0roster fWAR8th/30
-24surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$130Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 87GAnthony Gose 65GKevin Pillar 16G
LFMelky Cabrera 133GKevin Pillar 30GJohn Mayberry Jr. 16G
RFJosé Bautista 131GAnthony Gose 14GDarin Mastroianni 10G
SSJosé Reyes 142GRyan Goins 15GJonathan Diaz 14G
2BMunenori Kawasaki 64GRyan Goins 57GSteve Tolleson 55G
3BJuan Francisco 74GDanny Valencia 66GBrett Lawrie 63G
1BEdwin Encarnación 80GAdam Lind 47GJohn Mayberry Jr. 23G
STARTERSMark Buehrle 3.7WARMarcus Stroman 3.4WARDrew Hutchison 2.7WARR.A. Dickey 1.6WARJ.A. Happ 1.2WAR
CDioner Navarro 112GJosh Thole 53GGeorge Kottaras 15G
DHEdwin Encarnación 46GAdam Lind 37GDioner Navarro 21G
BULLPEN★ Casey Janssen 25svBrett Cecil 24hAaron Loup 13hSteve Delabar 12hAaron Sanchez 7hChad Jenkins 2hTodd Redmond 0hSergio Santos 0h
CDioner Navarro 112 · Josh Thole 53 · George Kottaras 15
1BEdwin Encarnación 80 · Adam Lind 47 · John Mayberry Jr. 23
2BMunenori Kawasaki 64 · Ryan Goins 57 · Steve Tolleson 55
3BJuan Francisco 74 · Danny Valencia 66 · Brett Lawrie 63
SSJosé Reyes 142 · Ryan Goins 15 · Jonathan Diaz 14
LFMelky Cabrera 133 · Kevin Pillar 30 · John Mayberry Jr. 16
CFColby Rasmus 87 · Anthony Gose 65 · Kevin Pillar 16
RFJosé Bautista 131 · Anthony Gose 14 · Darin Mastroianni 10
DHEdwin Encarnación 46 · Adam Lind 37 · Dioner Navarro 21
SPMark Buehrle 3.7 · Marcus Stroman 3.4 · Drew Hutchison 2.7 · R.A. Dickey 1.6 · J.A. Happ 1.2
BP★ Casey Janssen 25 · Brett Cecil 24 · Aaron Loup 13 · Steve Delabar 12 · Aaron Sanchez 7 · Chad Jenkins 2 · Todd Redmond 0 · Sergio Santos 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Bautista 33 FA-elig 1556.2 14.0 +4.1
José Reyes 31 FA-elig 1433.8 16.0 -5.0
Mark Buehrle 35 FA-elig 323.7 18.0 -7.1
Edwin Encarnación 31 FA-elig 1283.7 9.0 +1.7
Marcus Stroman 23 – 323.4 0.4 +9.6
Melky Cabrera 29 FA-elig 1393.1 8.0 +1.1
Drew Hutchison 23 pre-arb 352.7 0.5 +7.4
Adam Lind 30 FA-elig 961.7 7.0 -2.0
R.A. Dickey 39 FA-elig 351.6 12.0 -7.2
Brett Lawrie 24 arb 701.6 0.5 +4.2
Colby Rasmus 27 arb 1041.5 7.0 -2.6
Brett Cecil 27 arb 661.2 1.3 +2.3
J.A. Happ 31 FA-elig 301.2 5.2 -1.7
Juan Francisco 27 pre-arb 1061.2 0.4 +2.9
Anthony Gose 23 pre-arb 940.9 0.3 +2.4
Aaron Sanchez 21 – 240.6 0.2 +1.5
Aaron Loup 26 pre-arb 710.5 0.5 +0.9
Erik Kratz↔ KCR 34 arb 340.4 0.4 +0.8
Todd Redmond 29 pre-arb 420.4 0.5 +0.6
Kevin Pillar 25 pre-arb 530.4 0.2 +0.9
Brandon Morrow 29 FA-elig 130.4 8.0 -7.0
Munenori Kawasaki 33 – 820.4 – –
Maicer Izturis 33 FA-elig 110.3 3.0 -2.3
Dalton Pompey 21 – 170.2 0.1 +0.5
Chad Jenkins 26 pre-arb 210.2 0.2 +0.3
Casey Janssen 32 FA-elig 500.1 4.0 -3.7
Steve Tolleson 30 – 1090.1 0.4 -0.1
Kendall Graveman 23 – 50.1 0.1 +0.2
Danny Valencia↔ KCR 29 arb 500.1 0.6 -0.5
Kyle Drabek 26 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.1
Bobby Korecky 34 – 20.0 – –
John Mayberry Jr.↔ PHI 30 arb 150.0 0.3 -0.2
Neil Wagner 30 – 100.0 – –
Jonathan Diaz 29 – 230.0 – –
Jeremy Jeffress↔ MIL 26 arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Nolan Reimold↔ ARI 30 – 22-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Rob Rasmussen 25 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Sean Nolin 24 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.1 -0.3
George Kottaras↔ CLE 31 arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Cole Gillespie↔ SEA 30 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Daniel Norris 21 – 5-0.1 – –
Chris Getz 30 – 10-0.2 – –
Liam Hendriks↔ KCR 25 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Darin Mastroianni↔ MIN 28 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Esmil Rogers↔ NYY 28 arb 16-0.2 0.9 -1.6
Brad Mills↔ OAK 29 – 2-0.3 – –
Dan Johnson 34 arb 15-0.3 0.2 -1.0
Dustin McGowan 32 FA-elig 53-0.3 1.5 -2.4
Brad Glenn 27 – 6-0.3 – –
Josh Thole 27 arb 57-0.4 1.2 -2.4
Steve Delabar 30 arb 30-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Sergio Santos 30 arb 27-0.5 3.8 -5.3
Ryan Goins 26 pre-arb 67-0.6 0.5 -2.1
Moisés Sierra↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 13-0.7 0.1 -2.1
Dioner Navarro 30 FA-elig 139-0.8 3.0 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Marcus Stroman3.4
Drew Hutchison2.7
Juan Francisco1.2
Aaron Sanchez0.6
Erik Kratz0.4
Dalton Pompey0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Rajai Davis1.2
Josh Johnson0.4
J.P. Arencibia0.3
Mark DeRosa0.2
Juan Pablo Perez0.2
Luis Perez0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$130.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Mark Buehrle3513.078$18.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
José Reyes3110.111$16.0M$13.1MFREE AGENT
José Bautista338.165$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
R.A. Dickey399.007$12.0M$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación318.085$9.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Melky Cabrera297.148$8.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow296.091$8.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Lind309.058$7.0MFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen327.063$4.0MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro307.091$3.0M$5.0M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Maicer Izturis339.038$3.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan327.113$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Colby Rasmus275.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ315.047$5.2MFREE AGENT
Sergio Santos304.000$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil273.152$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Thole273.085$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esmil Rogers283.135$871kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Mayberry Jr.305.000$305kFREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold304.044$225kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson344.076$219kARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras314.149$16kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Getz305.050—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Danny Valencia292.118$619kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Lawrie242.055$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar302.015$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup261.083$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Redmond290.129$506kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Hutchison231.128$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Goins260.039$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Francisco272.156$445kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Tolleson301.140$413kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Stroman230.000$372kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz341.158$369kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose230.141$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Jenkins260.118$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez210.000$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar250.047$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Pompey210.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Nolin240.001$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Rasmussen250.096$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Sierra251.105$68kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman230.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Mastroianni280.149$48kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress261.017$48kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks251.000$26kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek262.080$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Gillespie301.003$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Korecky34–—
Neil Wagner301.030—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Munenori Kawasaki332.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Mills290.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Diaz291.041—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Glenn27–—
Daniel Norris210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.