PHI⇄TOR

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net +$2.4M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Gustavo Pierre

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net −$2.4M net +0.0

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $13M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

John MayberryOF·30y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.