TOR⇄KCR

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$11.2M net +1.5

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $29M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2015 odds 85% → 89% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Liam HendriksP·26y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 1.4± 4 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$11.2M net -1.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2015 odds 27% → 21% (-6.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Santiago Nessy

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.