TOR⇄DET

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$14.4M net +3.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$15.2M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2015 odds 85% → 89% (+4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Devon Travis2B·24y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

Composite #84.0 prospect (Baseball America #84 (2014)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$14.4M net -3.9

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $43M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 3.3 ± 5 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2015 odds 7% → 5% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony GoseOF·24y·L/L

+$17.1M+$17.1M± $43M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 3.3± 5 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.