Rosternomics
Log in Sign up 𝕏
← Trade Database
July 28, 2014

TOR⇄KCR

TOR won this trade +$2.4M surplus TOR won this trade +0.7 WAR
TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$2.4M net +0.7
received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2014 odds 25% → 22% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Danny Valencia3B·29y·R/R
+$2.6M+$2.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.5/yr over 1.1 season
Talent
0.34/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline
KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$2.4M net -0.7
received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $34M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 0.7 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2014 odds 19% → 21% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Erik KratzC·34y·R/R
+$8.1M+$8.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.8/yr over 0.8 season
Talent
1.20/yr blended
Horizon
2.2 control yrs × 0.86 age decline
Liam HendriksP·25y·R/R
−$1.6M−$1.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.4± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form -0.1/yr over 0.8 season
Talent
0.07/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · © 2026 Rosternomics