RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB -10.3
-10.3TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-10.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
42%dead money %23rd/30
0.457win %20th/30
26.5roster fWAR23rd/30
-56surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$127Mpayroll $M7th/30

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 114GAnthony Gose 34GRajai Davis 16G
LFMelky Cabrera 77GRajai Davis 57GKevin Pillar 33G
RFJosé Bautista 109GRajai Davis 35GMoisés Sierra 29G
SSJosé Reyes 92GMunenori Kawasaki 60GMaicer Izturis 28G
2BMaicer Izturis 59GRyan Goins 32GMark DeRosa 29G
3BBrett Lawrie 103GMaicer Izturis 36GMark DeRosa 25G
1BEdwin Encarnación 79GAdam Lind 76GMark DeRosa 17G
STARTERSMark Buehrle 2.1WARR.A. Dickey 1.9WARJ.A. Happ 1.0WARTodd Redmond 0.7WARJosh Johnson 0.4WAR
CJ.P. Arencibia 131GJosh Thole 39GMike Nickeas 1G
DHAdam Lind 58GEdwin Encarnación 55GMark DeRosa 14G
BULLPEN★ Casey Janssen 34svBrett Cecil 11hNeil Wagner 10hAaron Loup 8hSergio Santos 8hDarren Oliver 8hSteve Delabar 6hDustin McGowan 6h
CJ.P. Arencibia 131 · Josh Thole 39 · Mike Nickeas 1
1BEdwin Encarnación 79 · Adam Lind 76 · Mark DeRosa 17
2BMaicer Izturis 59 · Ryan Goins 32 · Mark DeRosa 29
3BBrett Lawrie 103 · Maicer Izturis 36 · Mark DeRosa 25
SSJosé Reyes 92 · Munenori Kawasaki 60 · Maicer Izturis 28
LFMelky Cabrera 77 · Rajai Davis 57 · Kevin Pillar 33
CFColby Rasmus 114 · Anthony Gose 34 · Rajai Davis 16
RFJosé Bautista 109 · Rajai Davis 35 · Moisés Sierra 29
DHAdam Lind 58 · Edwin Encarnación 55 · Mark DeRosa 14
SPMark Buehrle 2.1 · R.A. Dickey 1.9 · J.A. Happ 1.0 · Todd Redmond 0.7 · Josh Johnson 0.4
BP★ Casey Janssen 34 · Brett Cecil 11 · Neil Wagner 10 · Aaron Loup 8 · Sergio Santos 8 · Darren Oliver 8 · Steve Delabar 6 · Dustin McGowan 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Bautista 32 FA-elig 1184.1 14.0 -3.1
Edwin Encarnación 30 FA-elig 1424.0 8.0 +2.7
Colby Rasmus 26 arb 1183.9 4.7 +5.7
José Reyes 30 FA-elig 932.5 10.0 -3.4
Mark Buehrle 34 FA-elig 332.1 11.0 -5.3
R.A. Dickey 38 FA-elig 341.9 5.0 +0.2
Adam Lind 29 FA-elig 1431.6 5.0 -0.7
Brett Lawrie 23 pre-arb 1071.6 0.5 +3.7
Steve Delabar 29 pre-arb 551.2 0.5 +2.9
Rajai Davis 32 FA-elig 1081.2 2.5 +0.7
Casey Janssen 31 FA-elig 561.2 3.9 -0.7
J.A. Happ 30 FA-elig 181.0 3.7 -1.0
Brett Cecil 26 arb 600.9 0.5 +1.9
Sergio Santos 29 arb 290.9 2.8 -0.5
Munenori Kawasaki 32 pre-arb 960.7 0.4 +1.5
Todd Redmond 28 pre-arb 170.7 0.5 +1.3
Aaron Loup 25 pre-arb 640.6 0.5 +1.2
Josh Johnson 29 FA-elig 160.4 13.8 -12.6
Moisés Sierra 24 pre-arb 350.4 0.1 +1.0
J.P. Arencibia 27 arb 1380.3 0.5 +0.2
Mark DeRosa 38 FA-elig 880.2 0.8 -0.2
Juan Pablo Perez 34 – 190.2 – –
Chad Jenkins 25 pre-arb 100.1 0.2 +0.2
Dustin McGowan 31 FA-elig 250.1 1.5 -1.1
Ryan Goins 25 – 340.1 0.1 +0.2
Luis Perez 28 pre-arb 60.1 0.5 -0.2
Mickey Storey 27 pre-arb 30.1 0.1 +0.2
Neil Wagner 29 pre-arb 360.1 0.3 -0.1
Anthony Gose 22 pre-arb 520.1 0.2 +0.0
Ryan Langerhans 33 – 40.1 – –
Jeremy Jeffress 25 arb 100.1 0.5 -0.3
Darren Oliver 42 FA-elig 500.1 3.0 -2.9
Esmil Rogers 27 arb 460.0 0.5 -0.4
Mike Nickeas 30 – 10.0 – –
Justin Germano 30 – 1-0.0 – –
Thad Weber↔ SDP 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Andy LaRoche 29 – 1-0.1 – –
Aaron Laffey↔ NYM 28 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Kyle Drabek 25 arb 3-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Sean Nolin 23 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Chien-Ming Wang 33 FA-elig 6-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Kevin Pillar 24 – 36-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Brandon Morrow 28 FA-elig 10-0.2 8.0 -8.5
Dave Bush 33 FA-elig 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Melky Cabrera 28 FA-elig 88-0.2 8.0 -8.6
Edgar Gonzalez↔ HOU 30 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Ricky Romero 28 arb 4-0.3 7.5 -8.2
Brad Lincoln 28 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.2 -1.3
Emilio Bonifácio↔ KCR 28 FA-elig 94-0.5 1.8 -3.1
Josh Thole 26 arb 45-0.5 1.2 -2.5
Henry Blanco↔ SEA 41 FA-elig 15-0.5 0.2 -1.6
Ramon Ortiz 40 FA-elig 7-0.5 0.4 -1.8
Maicer Izturis 32 FA-elig 107-1.6 3.0 -7.4

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
José Reyes2.5
Mark Buehrle2.1
R.A. Dickey1.9
Munenori Kawasaki0.7
Todd Redmond0.7
Josh Johnson0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Jeff Mathis1.7
Yunel Escobar1.3
Kelly Johnson0.7
Carlos Villanueva0.6
Brandon Lyon0.4
Henderson Alvarez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$126.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
José Bautista327.165$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Johnson297.026$13.8MFREE AGENT
Mark Buehrle3412.078$11.0M$18.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
José Reyes309.111$10.0M$16.0M$13.1MFREE AGENT
Melky Cabrera286.148$8.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación307.085$8.0M$9.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
R.A. Dickey388.007$5.0M$12.0M$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Lind299.058$5.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Casey Janssen316.063$3.9M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Maicer Izturis328.038$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Darren Oliver4217.127$3.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan316.113$1.5M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mark DeRosa3812.061$750kFREE AGENT
Chien-Ming Wang337.159$500kFREE AGENT
Ramon Ortiz408.115$410kFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco4114.136$225kFREE AGENT
Dave Bush336.150$8kFREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans337.053—FREE AGENT
Justin Germano309.000—FREE AGENT
Juan Pablo Perez347.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Brandon Morrow285.091$8.0MFREE AGENT
Ricky Romero284.000$7.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus264.000$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
J.A. Happ304.047$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Santos293.000$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rajai Davis325.167$2.5MFREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio284.066$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey285.101$7kFREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez304.148$3kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Nickeas303.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy LaRoche295.096—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Josh Thole262.142$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil262.152$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esmil Rogers272.135$509kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Arencibia272.059$506kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perez281.119$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Lawrie231.055$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Drabek252.080$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar291.015$499kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress250.145$496kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup250.083$494kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Redmond280.040$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Munenori Kawasaki321.000$367kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Wagner290.030$305kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose220.079$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Lincoln281.143$166kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Jenkins250.060$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar240.000$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Sierra241.105$107kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Goins250.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Storey270.062$51kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thad Weber280.002$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Nolin230.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.