TOR⇄MIL

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$34.4M net +5.5

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$36.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 7.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2015 odds 89% → 89% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marco EstradaP·31y·R/R

+$4.1M+$4.1M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 7.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$34.4M net -5.5

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $6M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2015 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam Lind1B/DH·31y·L/L

−$6.2M−$6.2M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.