LAD⇄SEA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$8.0M net +0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2017 odds 90% → 91% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vidal NuñoP·29y·L/L

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$8.0M net -0.4

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $0M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2017 odds 11% → 10% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos RuizC·38y·R/R

−$6.0M−$6.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.