SEA⇄TOR

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$6.4M net +1.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $13M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2016 odds 31% → 30% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wade LeBlancP·31y·L/L

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.62 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net −$6.4M net -1.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2016 odds 43% → 44% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.