RRosternomics

Padres SDP

GM: Fred Uhlman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.5× league · TAB +1.0
+1.0TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+2.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-9.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
53%dead money %27th/30
0.463win %20th/30
26.6roster fWAR23rd/30
+23surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$46Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFTony Gwynn Jr. 102GWill Venable 16GDrew Macias 6G
LFChase Headley 114GKyle Blanks 18GDrew Macias 17G
RFWill Venable 68GBrian Giles 58GKyle Blanks 22G
SSEverth Cabrera 102GLuis Antonio Rodriguez 34GChris Burke 25G
2BDavid Eckstein 131GLuis Antonio Rodriguez 30GEdgar Gonzalez 15G
3BKevin Kouzmanoff 139GChase Headley 28GEdgar Gonzalez 5G
1BAdrián González 156GKyle Blanks 8GOscar Salazar 8G
STARTERSKevin Correia 3.0WARTim Stauffer 0.4WARChris Young 0.3WARWade LeBlanc 0.1WARClayton Richard 0.1WAR
CNick Hundley 74GHenry Blanco 60GEliezer Alfonzo 30G
DHKyle Blanks 2GCliff Floyd 2GAdrián González 2G
BULLPEN Heath Bell 42svLuke Gregerson 27hMike Adams 15hEdward Mujica 11hGreg Burke 10hJoe Thatcher 9hRyan Webb 6hLuis Perdomo 0h
CNick Hundley 74 · Henry Blanco 60 · Eliezer Alfonzo 30
1BAdrián González 156 · Kyle Blanks 8 · Oscar Salazar 8
2BDavid Eckstein 131 · Luis Antonio Rodriguez 30 · Edgar Gonzalez 15
3BKevin Kouzmanoff 139 · Chase Headley 28 · Edgar Gonzalez 5
SSEverth Cabrera 102 · Luis Antonio Rodriguez 34 · Chris Burke 25
LFChase Headley 114 · Kyle Blanks 18 · Drew Macias 17
CFTony Gwynn Jr. 102 · Will Venable 16 · Drew Macias 6
RFWill Venable 68 · Brian Giles 58 · Kyle Blanks 22
DHKyle Blanks 2 · Cliff Floyd 2 · Adrián González 2
SPKevin Correia 3.0 · Tim Stauffer 0.4 · Chris Young 0.3 · Wade LeBlanc 0.1 · Clayton Richard 0.1
BP Heath Bell 42 · Luke Gregerson 27 · Mike Adams 15 · Edward Mujica 11 · Greg Burke 10 · Joe Thatcher 9 · Ryan Webb 6 · Luis Perdomo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adrián González 27 arb 1605.8 3.1 +10.6
Kevin Correia 28 FA-elig 373.0 0.8 +6.3
Tony Gwynn Jr. 26 arb 1192.5 0.4 +5.4
Scott Hairston↔ OAK 29 arb 562.2 0.6 +4.5
Heath Bell 31 arb 682.1 1.3 +3.8
Kevin Kouzmanoff 27 arb 1412.1 0.4 +4.5
Luke Gregerson 25 pre-arb 722.0 0.4 +4.4
Jake Peavy↔ CHW 28 FA-elig 131.9 8.9 -4.5
Will Venable 26 pre-arb 951.8 0.4 +3.9
Henry Blanco 37 FA-elig 671.6 0.8 +3.0
Chad Gaudin↔ NYY 26 FA-elig 201.5 1.3 +2.3
Mike Adams 30 arb 371.4 0.4 +3.0
Chase Headley 25 pre-arb 1561.0 0.4 +1.9
Nick Hundley 25 pre-arb 780.9 0.4 +1.8
Kyle Blanks 22 540.9
Everth Cabrera 22 pre-arb 1030.9 0.4 +1.7
Joe Thatcher 27 pre-arb 520.9 0.4 +1.6
David Eckstein 34 FA-elig 1360.7 0.8 +0.8
Edward Mujica 25 arb 670.5 0.4 +0.8
Jody Gerut↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 370.4 0.5 +0.5
Tim Stauffer 27 arb 140.4 0.4 +0.6
Cesár Ramos 25 50.3
Chris Young 30 arb 140.3 4.6 -3.9
Luis Durango 23 90.3
Cla Meredith↔ BAL 26 arb 350.2 0.2 +0.3
Oscar Salazar↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 550.2 0.3 +0.1
Adam Russell 26 pre-arb 150.1 0.4 -0.1
Wade LeBlanc 24 pre-arb 90.1 0.4 -0.1
Clayton Richard↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 120.1 0.1 +0.1
Mat Latos 21 100.1
Shawn Hill 28 arb 30.1 0.5 -0.3
Ernesto Frieri 23 pre-arb 20.0 0.4 -0.4
Craig Stansberry 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Sean Gallagher↔ OAK 23 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Mike Ekstrom 25 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Walter Silva 32 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Frankie De La Cruz 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Ryan Webb 23 28-0.1
Aaron Poreda↔ CHW 22 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jose Lobatón 24 7-0.1
Greg Burke 26 48-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Cliff Floyd 36 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Drew Macias 26 51-0.2
Arturo Lopez 26 4-0.2
Edwin Moreno 28 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Josh Banks 26 6-0.3
Chris Burke 29 32-0.3
Edgar Gonzalez 31 pre-arb 82-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Cesar Carrillo 25 pre-arb 3-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Duaner Sanchez 29 FA-elig 12-0.6 1.7 -3.2
Luis Perdomo 25 pre-arb 35-0.7 0.4 -2.0
Eliezer Alfonzo 30 37-0.7
Josh Wilson↔ ARI 28 16-0.8
Luis Antonio Rodriguez 29 arb 93-0.8 0.7 -2.6
Josh Geer 26 19-1.0
Brian Giles 38 FA-elig 61-1.8 9.0 -13.3

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Correia3.0
Tony Gwynn Jr.2.5
Luke Gregerson2.0
Henry Blanco1.6
Chad Gaudin1.5
Kyle Blanks0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Cha Seung Baek2.1
Greg Maddux1.8
Randy Wolf1.5
Justin Hampson0.4
Trevor Hoffman0.4
Chad Reineke0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$45.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Brian Giles3814.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Peavy287.000$8.9MFREE AGENT
Duaner Sanchez297.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin266.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
David Eckstein348.000$850k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Correia286.000$750k$3.6MFREE AGENT
Cliff Floyd3616.000$750kFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco3712.000$750kFREE AGENT
Jody Gerut316.000$538kFREE AGENT
Oscar Salazar317.000$306k$408kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Chris Young305.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Adrián González275.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Heath Bell315.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Luis Antonio Rodriguez294.000$675kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Hairston295.000$603kFREE AGENT
Shawn Hill285.000$500kFREE AGENT
Kevin Kouzmanoff273.000$432kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Adams305.000$415kFREE AGENT
Edward Mujica253.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Gwynn Jr.263.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Stauffer274.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cla Meredith264.000$236kARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Wilson284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eliezer Alfonzo303.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Burke295.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Chase Headley252.000$412kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez311.000$407kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Russell261.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hundley251.000$404kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher272.000$404kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Venable261.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc241.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Ekstrom251.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Walter Silva320.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stansberry272.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Moreno280.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frankie De La Cruz252.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Carrillo250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernesto Frieri230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Everth Cabrera220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Burke260.000$310kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gallagher232.000$234kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Richard251.000$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Poreda220.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Webb230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Macias26
Arturo Lopez26
Josh Geer26
Jose Lobatón240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Blanks220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Banks26
Cesár Ramos250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Durango23
Mat Latos210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3