SDP⇄BAL

SDPSDP Fred Uhlman net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2009 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Oscar SalazarOF·31y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.58 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2009 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cla MeredithP·26y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.