CHW⇄SDP

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$21.6M net +4.6

received +$45.6M+$45.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 5.4 ± 2 expected · 10.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2009 odds 5% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake PeavyP·28y·R/R

+$45.4M+$45.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 5.4± 2 exp WARrealized 10.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.1/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

3.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Fred Uhlman net +$21.6M net -4.6

received +$42.4M+$42.4M ± $59M expected surplus · +$21.6M realized received 8.4 ± 7 expected · 5.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2009 odds 4% → 3% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clayton RichardP·25y·L/L

+$20.0M+$20.0M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 3.1± 5 exp WARrealized 5.4

Prior

#245 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Aaron PoredaP·22y·L/L

+$17.0M+$17.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

Composite #63.0 prospect (Baseball America #63 (2009)) → 0.48/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Adam RussellP·26y·R/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#179 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dexter CarterP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#369 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.