SDP⇄MIL

SDPSDP Fred Uhlman net +$52.8M net +5.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$42.4M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 4.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2009 odds 2% → 3% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony GwynnOF·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$42.4M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 4.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$52.8M net -5.1

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $16M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2009 odds 11% → 6% (-5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jody GerutOF·31y·L/L

+$15.2M+$15.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.