SDP⇄OAK

SDPSDP Fred Uhlman net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $42M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 5.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2009 odds 3% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean GallagherP·23y·R/R

+$16.2M+$16.2M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

Composite #82.0 pedigree (Baseball America #82 (2008)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig ItalianoP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#53 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan WebbP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#127 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$8.8M+$4.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2009 odds 11% → 11% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott HairstonOF·29y·R/R

+$9.0M+$4.5M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.