RRosternomics

Padres SDP

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.56× league · TAB -1.2
-1.2TAB — talent above budget17th/30
+4.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-7.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
40%dead money %25th/30
0.488win %18th/30
25.8roster fWAR22nd/30
+7surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$34Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFMark Kotsay 106GEmil Brown 57GMike Darr 29G
LFRay Lankford 106GRickey Henderson 104GBubba Trammell 34G
RFBubba Trammell 102GMike Darr 69GTony Gwynn 17G
SSD'Angelo Jimenez 85GDonaldo Mendez 46GAlex Arias 13G
2BDamian Jackson 118GCesar Crespo 34GAlex Arias 13G
3BPhil Nevin 145GDave Magadan 22GAlex Arias 18G
1BRyan Klesko 145GAlex Arias 17GKevin Witt 9G
STARTERSBrian Lawrence 1.8WARBrian Tollberg 1.7WARKevin Jarvis 1.2WARAdam Eaton 1.0WARBobby Jones 0.8WAR
CBen Davis 135GWiki Gonzalez 47GRick Wilkins 7G
DHDave Magadan 2GWiki Gonzalez 1GTony Gwynn 1G
BULLPEN Trevor Hoffman 43svTom Davey 12hJose Nunez 10hJeremy Fikac 6hDavid Lee 4hKevin Walker 4hRodney Myers 3hDavid Lundquist 0h
CBen Davis 135 · Wiki Gonzalez 47 · Rick Wilkins 7
1BRyan Klesko 145 · Alex Arias 17 · Kevin Witt 9
2BDamian Jackson 118 · Cesar Crespo 34 · Alex Arias 13
3BPhil Nevin 145 · Dave Magadan 22 · Alex Arias 18
SSD'Angelo Jimenez 85 · Donaldo Mendez 46 · Alex Arias 13
LFRay Lankford 106 · Rickey Henderson 104 · Bubba Trammell 34
CFMark Kotsay 106 · Emil Brown 57 · Mike Darr 29
RFBubba Trammell 102 · Mike Darr 69 · Tony Gwynn 17
DHDave Magadan 2 · Wiki Gonzalez 1 · Tony Gwynn 1
SPBrian Lawrence 1.8 · Brian Tollberg 1.7 · Kevin Jarvis 1.2 · Adam Eaton 1.0 · Bobby Jones 0.8
BP Trevor Hoffman 43 · Tom Davey 12 · Jose Nunez 10 · Jeremy Fikac 6 · David Lee 4 · Kevin Walker 4 · Rodney Myers 3 · David Lundquist 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2001 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Phil Nevin 30 FA-elig 1495.6 1.6 +7.4
Ryan Klesko 30 FA-elig 1464.0 5.8 +0.7
Mark Kotsay 25 arb 1193.4 2.1 +3.3
Bubba Trammell 29 arb 1422.3 0.3 +3.4
Ben Davis 24 arb 1381.9 0.2 +2.9
Brian Lawrence 25 271.8
Brian Tollberg 28 pre-arb 191.7 0.2 +2.5
Mike Darr 25 pre-arb 1051.3 0.2 +1.9
Kevin Jarvis 31 FA-elig 341.2 0.6 +1.4
Adam Eaton 23 pre-arb 231.0 0.2 +1.4
Wiki Gonzalez 27 pre-arb 641.0 0.2 +1.4
Jay Witasick↔ NYY 28 arb 310.8 0.4 +1.0
D'Angelo Jimenez 23 860.8
Bobby Jones 31 FA-elig 330.8 0.6 +0.7
Woody Williams↔ STL 34 FA-elig 260.7 3.6 -2.4
Jose Nunez↔ LAD 22 pre-arb 560.7 0.2 +0.9
Damian Jackson 27 arb 1220.6 0.3 +0.7
Ray Lankford↔ STL 34 FA-elig 400.6 2.5 -1.5
Sterling Hitchcock↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 30.5 1.4 -0.5
Tom Davey 27 pre-arb 390.5 0.2 +0.6
Tony Gwynn 41 FA-elig 710.5 2.0 -1.2
Jeremy Fikac 26 230.4
Rickey Henderson 42 FA-elig 1230.4 0.3 +0.3
Kevin Walker 24 pre-arb 160.3 0.3 +0.3
David Lundquist 28 170.2
Trevor Hoffman 33 FA-elig 620.2 6.8 -6.4
Wascar Serrano 24 200.1
Jimmy Osting 24 30.0
Rudy Seanez↔ ATL 32 26-0.1
Emil Brown↔ PIT 26 arb 13-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Kevin Witt 25 14-0.1
Dave Maurer 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Rick Wilkins 34 12-0.1
Santiago Perez 25 pre-arb 43-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Alex Arias 33 FA-elig 70-0.2 0.6 -0.9
Carlton Loewer 27 arb 2-0.2 0.2 -0.6
David Lee 28 41-0.2
Adam Riggs 28 12-0.2
Rodney Myers 32 arb 37-0.3 0.3 -0.7
Dave Magadan 38 FA-elig 91-0.3 0.6 -1.0
Junior Herndon 22 12-0.4
Mike Colangelo 24 50-0.4
Chuck McElroy↔ BAL 33 FA-elig 31-0.5 1.0 -1.7
Brett Jodie↔ NYY 24 7-0.5
Jason Middlebrook 26 4-0.5
Cesar Crespo 22 55-0.7
Donaldo Mendez 23 pre-arb 46-1.3 0.2 -2.3
Chris Gomez↔ TBR 30 FA-elig 40-1.4 1.2 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2000)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Kotsay3.4
Bubba Trammell2.3
Brian Lawrence1.8
Kevin Jarvis1.2
D'Angelo Jimenez0.8
Bobby Jones0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2000)

Player2000 fWAR
Eric Owens1.7
Matt Clement1.3
Ruben Rivera0.8
Stan Spencer0.7
Will Cunnane0.5
Donne Wall0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2001 payroll
$34.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2001, 2001–2007. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Trevor Hoffman338.000$6.8M$6.6M$9.6M$2.5M$5.0M$4.5M$7.0M
Ryan Klesko309.000$5.8M$6.0M$5.5M$6.0M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Woody Williams348.000$3.6MFREE AGENT$3.0M$5.0M
Ray Lankford3411.000$2.5M$8.1MFREE AGENT
Tony Gwynn4119.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Nevin306.000$1.6M$2.6M$5.0M$8.5M$6.9MFREE AGENT
Sterling Hitchcock309.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez308.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chuck McElroy3312.000$962kFREE AGENT
Bobby Jones318.000$625k$4.0MFREE AGENT
Dave Magadan3815.000$575kFREE AGENT
Kevin Jarvis317.000$550k$1.2M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Arias339.000$550kFREE AGENT
Rickey Henderson4222.000$300kFREE AGENT
Rudy Seanez3212.000FREE AGENT$550k$1.6M
Rick Wilkins3410.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Mark Kotsay254.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Witasick285.000$394kFREE AGENT
Damian Jackson275.000$350kFREE AGENT
Bubba Trammell294.000$335kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodney Myers325.000$290kFREE AGENT
Ben Davis243.000$235kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlton Loewer273.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emil Brown264.000$47kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Kevin Walker241.000$255kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wiki Gonzalez272.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton231.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tollberg281.000$230kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Davey272.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Darr252.000$215kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Perez251.000$207kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Maurer261.000$202kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donaldo Mendez230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Nunez220.000$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Riggs28
Kevin Witt25
David Lee282.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
D'Angelo Jimenez232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Lundquist282.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wascar Serrano24
Mike Colangelo242.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Osting24
Jason Middlebrook26
Junior Herndon22
Brian Lawrence250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Crespo220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Jodie24
Jeremy Fikac260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2001; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3