RRosternomics

Padres SDP

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.92× league · TAB -8.3
-8.3TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-4.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars14th/30
-5.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
59%dead money %27th/30
0.469win %20th/30
24.8roster fWAR21st/30
-22surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$50Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFRuben Rivera 131GEric Owens 34GMike Darr 19G
LFEric Owens 65GDamian Jackson 17GKory DeHaan 10G
RFEric Owens 68GKory DeHaan 49GMike Darr 47G
SSDesi Relaford 126GDamian Jackson 88GKevin Nicholson 30G
2BBret Boone 126GDamian Jackson 36GKevin Nicholson 4G
3BPhil Nevin 142GEd Sprague Jr. 40GDave Magadan 29G
1BRyan Klesko 136GEd Sprague Jr. 28GJoe Vitiello 17G
STARTERSWoody Williams 2.6WARAdam Eaton 2.3WARBrian Tollberg 1.5WARMatt Clement 1.3WARStan Spencer 0.7WAR
CWiki Gonzalez 87GBen Davis 38GGeorge Williams 6G
DHTony Gwynn 6GDusty Allen 1GBen Davis 1G
BULLPEN Trevor Hoffman 43svKevin Walker 19hHeathcliff Slocumb 12hDonne Wall 12hCarlos Almánzar 8hMatt Whiteside 6hTodd Erdos 1hWill Cunnane 1h
CWiki Gonzalez 87 · Ben Davis 38 · George Williams 6
1BRyan Klesko 136 · Ed Sprague Jr. 28 · Joe Vitiello 17
2BBret Boone 126 · Damian Jackson 36 · Kevin Nicholson 4
3BPhil Nevin 142 · Ed Sprague Jr. 40 · Dave Magadan 29
SSDesi Relaford 126 · Damian Jackson 88 · Kevin Nicholson 30
LFEric Owens 65 · Damian Jackson 17 · Kory DeHaan 10
CFRuben Rivera 131 · Eric Owens 34 · Mike Darr 19
RFEric Owens 68 · Kory DeHaan 49 · Mike Darr 47
DHTony Gwynn 6 · Dusty Allen 1 · Ben Davis 1
SPWoody Williams 2.6 · Adam Eaton 2.3 · Brian Tollberg 1.5 · Matt Clement 1.3 · Stan Spencer 0.7
BP Trevor Hoffman 43 · Kevin Walker 19 · Heathcliff Slocumb 12 · Donne Wall 12 · Carlos Almánzar 8 · Matt Whiteside 6 · Todd Erdos 1 · Will Cunnane 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2000 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Phil Nevin 29 arb 1434.6 0.9 +5.6
Ryan Klesko 29 FA-elig 1453.2 5.8 -1.1
Trevor Hoffman 32 FA-elig 702.6 6.6 -2.9
Woody Williams 33 FA-elig 302.6 4.6 -0.9
Damian Jackson 26 arb 1382.6 0.2 +3.5
Adam Eaton 22 232.3
Eric Owens 29 arb 1451.7 0.4 +2.0
Brian Tollberg 27 191.5
Matt Clement 25 pre-arb 341.3 0.6 +1.3
Mike Darr 24 581.3
Dave Magadan 37 FA-elig 951.2 0.8 +1.0
Ruben Rivera 26 arb 1350.8 0.7 +0.4
Stan Spencer 31 90.7
Wiki Gonzalez 26 pre-arb 950.7 0.2 +0.7
Will Cunnane 26 arb 270.5 0.2 +0.4
Donne Wall 32 arb 440.4 0.7 -0.1
Kevin Walker 23 700.4
Bret Boone 31 FA-elig 1270.3 3.8 -3.3
Tom Davey 26 110.3
Jay Witasick↔ KCR 27 arb 110.3 0.1 +0.3
Kevin Nicholson 24 370.2
Tony Gwynn 40 FA-elig 360.2 6.3 -6.0
Kory DeHaan 23 pre-arb 900.2 0.2 +0.0
John Mabry↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 480.1 0.9 -0.7
Brandon Kolb 26 110.1
Sterling Hitchcock 29 FA-elig 110.1 6.1 -5.9
Rodney Myers 31 arb 30.1 0.2 -0.1
David Newhan↔ PHI 26 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.0
Heathcliff Slocumb↔ STL 34 FA-elig 220.1 0.5 -0.4
Xavier Nady 21 10.0 1.8 -1.7
Dave Maurer 25 140.0
Carlos Hernandez↔ STL 33 FA-elig 580.0 1.4 -1.3
Al Martin↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 930.0 1.2 -1.2
Buddy Carlyle 22 4-0.0
Domingo Guzman 25 1-0.0
Matt Whisenant 29 arb 24-0.1 0.5 -0.5
Joe Vitiello 30 39-0.1
Rodrigo Lopez 24 6-0.1
George Williams 31 11-0.1
Dan Serafini↔ PIT 26 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Ben Davis 23 43-0.2
Brian Boehringer 31 arb 7-0.2 0.8 -1.1
Ed Sprague Jr.↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 73-0.2 0.6 -0.8
Matt Whiteside 32 28-0.2
Gabe Alvarez↔ DET 26 11-0.2
Dusty Allen↔ DET 27 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.4
Chris Gomez 29 FA-elig 33-0.3 2.6 -3.0
Carlos Almánzar 26 arb 62-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Vicente Palacios 36 7-0.3
Greg LaRocca 27 13-0.4
Todd Erdos↔ NYY 26 arb 22-0.4 0.1 -0.7
Steve Montgomery 29 arb 7-0.4 0.2 -0.9
Desi Relaford↔ PHI 26 arb 45-0.5 0.1 -0.8
John Roskos 25 14-0.5
Carlos Reyes↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 12-0.5 0.3 -1.0
Brian Meadows↔ KCR 24 pre-arb 22-0.7 0.2 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1999)

PlayerfWAR
Ryan Klesko3.2
Adam Eaton2.3
Brian Tollberg1.5
Kevin Walker0.4
Bret Boone0.3
Tom Davey0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 1999)

Player1999 fWAR
Reggie Sanders4.1
Andy Ashby2.6
Quilvio Veras1.6
John Vander Wal1.3
Wally Joyner0.9
Gary Matthews Jr.0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2000 payroll
$50.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2000, 2000–2006. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Trevor Hoffman327.000$6.6M$6.8M$6.6M$9.6M$2.5M$5.0M$4.5M
Tony Gwynn4018.000$6.3M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Sterling Hitchcock298.000$6.1M$4.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Klesko298.000$5.8M$5.8M$6.0M$5.5M$6.0M$9.0M$9.0M
Woody Williams337.000$4.6M$3.6MFREE AGENT$3.0M$5.0M
Bret Boone318.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez297.000$2.6M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Hernandez3310.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Al Martin328.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
John Mabry296.000$925kFREE AGENT
Dave Magadan3714.000$775k$575kFREE AGENT
Ed Sprague Jr.329.000$551kFREE AGENT
Heathcliff Slocumb349.000$533kFREE AGENT
Carlos Reyes316.000$273kFREE AGENT
Vicente Palacios3613.000FREE AGENT
Matt Whiteside328.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Phil Nevin295.000$875kFREE AGENT
Brian Boehringer315.000$830kFREE AGENT
Ruben Rivera265.000$700kFREE AGENT
Donne Wall325.000$700kFREE AGENT
Matt Whisenant293.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Owens295.000$370kFREE AGENT
Damian Jackson264.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodney Myers314.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Montgomery294.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Cunnane263.000$230kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Almánzar263.000$215kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Erdos263.000$125kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Desi Relaford264.000$121kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Witasick274.000$83kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Serafini264.000$49kARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Vitiello305.000FREE AGENT
George Williams315.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Xavier Nady210.000$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Clement252.000$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Meadows242.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wiki Gonzalez261.000$208kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kory DeHaan230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Newhan261.000$118kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Allen270.000$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Roskos25
Gabe Alvarez262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stan Spencer312.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Darr241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Davis232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Guzman25
Rodrigo Lopez240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Nicholson24
Tom Davey261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Carlyle221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Kolb26
Kevin Walker230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Maurer250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tollberg270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg LaRocca27

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2000; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3